The School of Odds
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Bosnia & Herzegovina v Sweden

Kickoff: 2026-10-02 18:46 UTC

Final: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 Sweden

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Local)

Prediction 34.33%2.91fair odd
EV -0.442%
Edge -0.152%
Kelly -0.233%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.30%34.30%34.29%35.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.742.752.9038.17%36.44%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sweden (Visit)

Prediction 39.19%2.55fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.46%39.27%39.18%40.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.282.372.402.4543.86%42.15%41.67%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.48%3.78fair odd
EV -0.706%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.257%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.88%26.43%26.52%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.523.503.7530.30%28.44%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bosnia & Herzegovina (Local): 34.33%; Sweden (Visit): 39.19%; Draw: 26.48%. For Bosnia & Herzegovina (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.442%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%EV -0.442%E -0.152%K -0.233%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -0.706%E -0.188%K -0.257%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-02 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.54%EV -0.442%E -0.152%K -0.233%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.53%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.94%EV -0.706%E -0.188%K -0.257%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-02 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.42%EV -0.442%E -0.152%K -0.233%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.73%EV -6.72%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.85%EV -0.706%E -0.188%K -0.257%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-02 18:45
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.53%EV -3.19%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.07%EV -5.16%E -2.13%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 18:09
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.53%EV -3.19%E -1.13%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.07%EV -5.16%E -2.13%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 18:10
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -3.87%E -1.38%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.19%EV -8.68%E -3.73%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-02 18:45
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -3.87%E -1.38%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 40.19%EV -8.68%E -3.73%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.38%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-02 18:45
1xBet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.14%EV -4.56%E -1.64%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.05%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.81%EV -6.27%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-02 18:44
Bovada🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.82%EV -4.56%E -1.64%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.53%EV -4.37%E -1.79%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.65%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-02 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.61%EV -4.90%E -1.77%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.13%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -3.35%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-02 18:00
Suprabets🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.33%EV -5.25%E -1.90%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.99%EV -4.77%E -1.96%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.69%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 17:39
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.39%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.98%E -1.63%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 18:45
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.25%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.72%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.17%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 18:45
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.52%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 18:45
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 18:45
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 18:44
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.16%EV -10.64%E -4.67%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 18:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.16%EV -10.64%E -4.67%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -5.59%E -2.03%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.16%EV -10.64%E -4.67%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 18:45
MyBookie.ag🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.16%EV -6.96%E -2.57%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.45%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 18:44
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-02 18:43
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.36%EV -6.00%E -1.69%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.77%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -3.35%E -0.919%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-02 18:40
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -0.706%E -0.188%K -0.257%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 18:40
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 18:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 18:44
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-02 18:45
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.26%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.54%EV -5.94%E -2.48%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.20%EV -9.97%E -2.93%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 18:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:45
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.11%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -7.90%E -3.36%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.70%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-02 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.94%EV -7.31%E -2.71%K -4.30%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.50%EV -9.08%E -3.91%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.56%EV -8.65%E -2.51%K -3.53%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-02 18:38
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.84%EV -9.02%E -3.41%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.79%EV -6.72%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.38%EV -7.33%E -2.09%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 18:30
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -10.05%E -3.84%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.92%EV -6.72%E -2.83%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.73%EV -4.68%E -1.30%K -1.80%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-02 18:45
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.09%EV -10.05%E -3.84%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.84%EV -9.86%E -4.29%K -7.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -12.62%E -3.82%K -5.49%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-02 18:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.94I 34.01%NM 33.79%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.06%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.15%0.7%2026-10-02 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 34.22%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.01%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.77%0.8%2026-10-02 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.95%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.97%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.08%0.9%2026-10-02 18:45