The School of Odds
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Bosnia & Herzegovina v Poland

Kickoff: 2026-10-05 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bosnia & Herzegovina (Local)

Prediction 34.02%2.94fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.39%33.99%34.11%34.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.752.752.8537.74%36.33%36.36%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Poland (Visit)

Prediction 37.40%2.67fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.917%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.71%37.44%37.35%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.512.502.6141.67%39.88%40.00%38.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.58%3.50fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.829%
Kelly -1.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.50%28.57%28.54%29.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.253.253.4032.26%30.78%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bosnia & Herzegovina (Local): 34.02%; Poland (Visit): 37.40%; Draw: 28.58%. For Poland (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.61, with an expected value of -2.39%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.79%EV -3.04%E -1.07%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.03%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-05 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.79%EV -3.04%E -1.07%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.03%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-05 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.79%EV -3.04%E -1.07%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.03%EV -2.77%E -1.06%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-05 14:00
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.26%EV -3.72%E -1.32%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 37.14%EV -2.39%E -0.917%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.60%EV -3.11%E -0.916%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-05 14:50
Suprabets🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.60%EV -4.06%E -1.44%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.60%EV -5.76%E -2.28%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.80%EV -5.96%E -1.81%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 14:48
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -4.06%E -1.44%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 14:55
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.48%EV -4.06%E -1.44%K -2.23%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.02%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.50%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 14:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.23%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 37.15%EV -3.51%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.61%EV -4.25%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-05 14:45
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.77%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.40%EV -4.82%E -1.45%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 13:51
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 13:35
BetAnything🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-05 15:16
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.38%EV -5.76%E -2.28%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.11%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-05 15:09
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -4.74%E -1.69%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.72%EV -5.77%E -2.08%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 37.81%EV -7.63%E -3.09%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.47%EV -6.25%E -1.91%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 14:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.34%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.62%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-05 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -2.82%E -0.829%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-05 14:45
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 14:15
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 14:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 14:15
BetMGM🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 14:15
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 14:05
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 14:05
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 14:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.04%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.71%EV -4.64%E -1.82%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.25%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-05 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 14:05
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 14:05
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 14:45
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -11.39%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -11.39%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 15:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -11.39%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 15:00
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -6.45%E -2.34%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -7.11%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 14:25
ReBet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 34.45%EV -7.81%E -2.88%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 36.91%EV -5.38%E -2.13%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.64%EV -6.82%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 14:45
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -2.82%E -0.829%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 14:50
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -2.82%E -0.829%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 14:50
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.36%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.11%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-05 14:50
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 14:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -10.25%E -4.27%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -4.25%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 14:45
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -7.11%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-05 13:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 14:05
TABtouch🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 14:06
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.05%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.77%EV -6.51%E -2.60%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -9.96%E -3.16%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 14:06
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -8.15%E -3.02%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -11.39%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-05 15:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 34.46%EV -8.49%E -3.15%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 36.93%EV -6.13%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.61%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 14:54
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.85%E -3.72%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 14:05
Fliff🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -9.85%E -3.72%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -8.38%E -3.42%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -8.54%E -2.67%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-05 15:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.70%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.50%0.2%2026-10-05 15:16
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.70%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.79%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.50%0.2%2026-10-05 15:16
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.96I 33.78%NM 33.57%2.64I 37.88%NM 37.63%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.80%0.6%2026-10-05 15:16