The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Belgium v Turkey

2026-10-02 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belgium (Local)

Prediction 64.00%1.56fair odd
EV -7.19%
Edge -4.96%
Kelly -15.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.22%64.05%64.00%65.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.431.431.4571.94%70.01%69.93%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Turkey (Visit)

Prediction 16.19%6.18fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -0.474%
Kelly -0.568%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.44%16.18%16.19%16.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.765.806.0019.23%17.37%17.24%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.80%5.05fair odd
EV -0.987%
Edge -0.197%
Kelly -0.247%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.85%19.76%19.80%20.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.684.655.0022.22%21.37%21.51%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Belgium (Local): 64.00%; Turkey (Visit): 16.19%; Draw: 19.80%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.05. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 5.00, with an expected value of -0.987%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -2.84%E -0.474%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -4.95%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 20:49
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -7.19%E -4.96%K -15.99%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -2.84%E -0.474%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.93%E -1.47%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-29 00:50
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.45%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -2.84%E -0.474%K -0.568%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -0.987%E -0.197%K -0.247%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-28 23:29
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -2.84%E -0.474%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -5.94%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-28 21:05
BoyleSports🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.83%E -5.44%K -17.80%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.94%E -1.99%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-28 20:54
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.47%EV -8.47%E -5.93%K -19.71%G +0.000%5.72I 17.48%NM 16.12%EV -7.38%E -1.29%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.94%E -1.25%K -1.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-28 20:50
Suprabets🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -8.47%E -5.93%K -19.71%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -6.08%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.91%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-28 21:02
MyBookie.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.21%EV -8.47%E -5.93%K -19.71%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -6.08%E -1.05%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.96%EV -8.91%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-29 00:55
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.25%EV -9.11%E -6.42%K -21.70%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.44%EV -2.84%E -0.474%K -0.568%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV -4.95%E -1.03%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-28 21:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.30%EV -9.75%E -6.92%K -23.79%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.77%EV -6.89%E -1.20%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 19.93%EV -9.90%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-28 20:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.59%EV -9.75%E -6.92%K -23.79%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.92%EV -14.18%E -2.67%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.49%EV -8.91%E -1.94%K -2.47%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 20:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.44%EV -11.03%E -7.94%K -28.29%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.96%EV -15.80%E -3.04%K -3.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.60%EV -10.89%E -2.42%K -3.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-28 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 53.33%2.24I 44.64%NM 26.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 19.76%65.9%2026-09-29 01:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 53.33%2.24I 44.64%NM 26.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 19.76%65.9%2026-09-29 01:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.13I 88.50%NM 53.33%2.24I 44.64%NM 26.91%3.05I 32.79%NM 19.76%65.9%2026-09-29 01:55