Language:English
Belgium v Turkey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Belgium (Local)
Prediction 64.53%1.55fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.58%64.49%64.51%65.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.451.5271.43%68.76%68.97%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Turkey (Visit)
Prediction 16.00%6.25fair odd
EV +3.19%
Edge +0.494%
Kelly +0.585%
Growth +0.019%
assuming max odds 6.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.01%16.07%15.97%17.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.805.806.4518.87%17.25%17.24%15.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.48%5.13fair odd
EV +1.28%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.304%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 5.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.46%19.44%19.51%20.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.824.805.2022.22%20.75%20.83%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Belgium (Local): 64.53%; Turkey (Visit): 16.00%; Draw: 19.48%. For Turkey (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.25. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.68%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 15.07%EV +3.19%E +0.494%K +0.585%G +0.019% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.25%EV -1.65%E -0.326%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.60%EV -5.15%E -3.50%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.31%EV +0.787%E +0.125%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 5.05I 19.80%NM 19.10%EV -1.65%E -0.326%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.68%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.01%EV +0.787%E +0.125%K +0.148%G +0.001% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.30%EV -4.57%E -0.932%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.01%EV -3.86%E -2.59%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.62%EV -0.813%E -0.131%K -0.156%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.37%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.30%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.11%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.59%EV +1.28%E +0.245%K +0.304%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.30%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.11%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.59%EV +1.28%E +0.245%K +0.304%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.30%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.11%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.59%EV +1.28%E +0.245%K +0.304%G +0.004% | 3.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -6.44%E -4.44%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.51%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 17:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.78%EV -6.44%E -4.44%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -6.51%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 17:58 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.19%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.65%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.16%EV -4.57%E -0.932%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.51%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-02 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.94%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.48%EV -6.51%E -1.36%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.35%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.57%E -0.932%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.35%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.07%EV -4.57%E -0.932%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 18:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.80%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.55%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.65%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-02 18:20 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.03%EV -9.66%E -6.90%K -24.16%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.17%EV -4.01%E -0.669%K -0.802%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.79%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -5.61%E -0.951%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.64%EV -11.38%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.92%EV -5.61%E -0.951%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 20.64%EV -11.38%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.62%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -7.21%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.62%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.93%EV -7.21%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.45%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 18:38 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.48%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -7.21%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -8.46%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.48%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -7.21%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -8.46%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.48%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.90%EV -7.21%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -8.46%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -8.01%E -1.39%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.21%EV -6.44%E -4.44%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -8.01%E -1.39%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.60%EV -7.49%E -1.58%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-02 18:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.48%EV -9.02%E -6.40%K -22.00%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -8.01%E -1.39%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.46%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-02 18:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.39%EV -7.73%E -5.40%K -17.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.01%EV -8.01%E -1.39%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.59%EV -8.46%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.03%EV -1.92%E -1.26%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 5.59I 17.89%NM 17.14%EV -10.57%E -1.89%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.83%EV -5.93%E -1.23%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-10-02 18:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.89%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.91%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.29%EV -5.15%E -3.50%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -8.46%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.58%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.61%EV -6.44%E -4.44%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.77%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.62%EV -8.46%E -1.80%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.88%EV -10.41%E -2.26%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -7.08%E -4.92%K -16.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -12.01%E -2.18%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -12.36%E -2.75%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.69%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -13.61%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.69%EV -4.50%E -3.04%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.46%EV -13.61%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-02 18:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.01%EV -5.79%E -3.97%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.31%EV -13.61%E -2.52%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.69%EV -2.62%E -0.524%K -0.655%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.71%EV -6.44%E -4.44%K -14.30%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.43%EV -15.21%E -2.87%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.85%EV -4.57%E -0.932%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.83% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.11% | 0.6% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.97% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.97% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.50I 66.67%NM 65.97% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03% | 1.0% | 2026-10-02 18:40 |