The School of Odds
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Belgium v Italy

2026-11-15 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belgium (Local)

Prediction 43.10%2.32fair odd
EV -5.17%
Edge -2.35%
Kelly -4.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.57%43.15%43.51%44.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.982.112.152.2050.51%47.29%46.51%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Italy (Visit)

Prediction 29.78%3.36fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.22%30.21%29.24%33.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.133.203.2536.36%31.99%31.25%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.11%3.69fair odd
EV +3.03%
Edge +0.799%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.033%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.10%26.64%27.25%27.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.8031.25%29.37%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Belgium (Local): 43.10%; Italy (Visit): 29.78%; Draw: 27.11%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.69. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.80, producing a positive expected value of +3.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.60%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.30%EV -18.10%E -6.58%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.10%EV +3.03%E +0.799%K +1.08%G +0.033%9.2%2026-11-10 09:35
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.21%E -0.988%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-10 10:34
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.94%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -3.21%E -0.988%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.99%EV -5.10%E -1.46%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-10 10:10
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -6.19%E -1.97%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -6.46%E -1.87%K -2.63%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 09:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.59%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -3.21%E -0.988%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-10 10:15
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 10:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 10:10
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 10:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.40%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-10 10:10
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -8.62%E -4.07%K -7.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-10 10:10
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -7.32%E -3.41%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -7.68%E -2.48%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-10 09:35
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.17%E -2.35%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -13.64%E -4.70%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -7.81%E -2.30%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-10 09:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.39%EV -13.79%E -6.90%K -13.79%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.11%EV -9.17%E -3.01%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.50%EV -9.17%E -2.74%K -3.90%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-10 10:09
MyBookie.ag🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 43.88%EV -9.91%E -4.74%K -9.09%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -4.70%E -1.47%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.46%EV -9.44%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-10 10:14
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.70%EV -10.34%E -4.97%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 28.76%EV -5.89%E -1.86%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.54%EV -10.52%E -3.19%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-10 10:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.61%EV -14.65%E -7.40%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 28.22%EV -6.79%E -2.17%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -11.88%E -3.65%K -5.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-11-10 10:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.67%EV -14.65%E -7.40%K -14.95%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.31%EV -12.15%E -4.12%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.02%EV -13.23%E -4.14%K -6.02%G +0.000%15.7%2026-11-10 10:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.94%166.3%2026-11-10 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.94%166.3%2026-11-10 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 33.53%1.14I 87.72%NM 32.94%166.3%2026-11-10 13:50

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