The School of Odds
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Belarus v San Marino

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 16:00 UTC

Final: Belarus 4–0 San Marino

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Belarus (Local)

Prediction 87.70%1.14fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -35.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.23%87.50%87.62%89.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.1095.24%93.31%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Marino (Visit)

Prediction 2.86%34.93fair odd
EV +20.22%
Edge +0.482%
Kelly +0.493%
Growth +0.100%

assuming max odds 42.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.21%2.94%2.80%4.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
19.0030.3930.0042.005.26%3.29%3.33%2.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 9.44%10.59fair odd
EV +18.02%
Edge +1.44%
Kelly +1.57%
Growth +0.282%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.52%9.56%9.58%11.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.7510.1210.2512.5012.90%9.88%9.76%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Belarus (Local): 87.70%; San Marino (Visit): 2.86%; Draw: 9.44%. For San Marino (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 34.93. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 42.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Winamax (DE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.72%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.76%EV -28.44%E -1.14%K -1.18%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.52%EV +18.02%E +1.44%K +1.57%G +0.282%6.3%2026-10-03 15:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.23%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.81%EV -2.68%E -0.079%K -0.081%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.96%EV +13.30%E +1.11%K +1.21%G +0.161%4.7%2026-10-03 15:23
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.17%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%EV -14.13%E -0.471%K -0.487%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%5.0%2026-10-03 15:51
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.17%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%EV -14.13%E -0.471%K -0.487%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%5.0%2026-10-03 15:51
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.17%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%EV -14.13%E -0.471%K -0.487%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%5.0%2026-10-03 15:51
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.17%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%EV -14.13%E -0.471%K -0.487%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%5.0%2026-10-03 15:51
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.17%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.17%EV -14.13%E -0.471%K -0.487%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.66%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%5.0%2026-10-03 15:45
Suprabets🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.74%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.64%EV -25.58%E -0.984%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.61%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%5.5%2026-10-03 15:16
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.84%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.61%EV -25.58%E -0.984%K -1.02%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%6.4%2026-10-03 15:36
Winamax (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 87.78%EV -7.92%E -7.54%K -158.38%G +0.000%24.00I 4.17%NM 3.84%EV -31.30%E -1.30%K -1.36%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%8.5%2026-10-03 15:55
Bovada🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.79%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.84%EV -45.61%E -2.40%K -2.53%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV +3.85%E +0.350%K +0.385%G +0.015%8.7%2026-10-03 15:57
1xBet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.82%EV -3.53%E -3.21%K -35.34%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.34%EV -37.03%E -1.68%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.80I 9.26%NM 8.84%EV +1.97%E +0.182%K +0.201%G +0.004%4.7%2026-10-03 15:59
betano_uk🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.46%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.60%EV +3.05%E +0.085%K +0.087%G +0.003%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -0.867%E -0.083%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 15:43
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.33%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.75%EV -2.68%E -0.079%K -0.081%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.92%EV -0.867%E -0.083%K -0.091%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 15:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.91%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -0.867%E -0.083%K -0.091%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.91%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -0.867%E -0.083%K -0.091%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.91%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -0.867%E -0.083%K -0.091%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 15:45
TABtouch🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.91%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.21%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.87%EV -0.867%E -0.083%K -0.091%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 15:45
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +3.05%E +0.085%K +0.087%G +0.003%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -5.59%E -0.559%K -0.621%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +3.05%E +0.085%K +0.087%G +0.003%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -5.59%E -0.559%K -0.621%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.87%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.64%EV +3.05%E +0.085%K +0.087%G +0.003%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -5.59%E -0.559%K -0.621%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-03 15:55
William Hill🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.84%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.76%EV -2.68%E -0.079%K -0.081%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.40%EV -5.59%E -0.559%K -0.621%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 15:55
TAB🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.94%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.74%EV -2.68%E -0.079%K -0.081%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.32%EV -5.59%E -0.559%K -0.621%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-03 15:41
BetMGM🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.29%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.04%EV -11.26%E -0.363%K -0.375%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.67%EV -7.95%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-03 15:45
Neds🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.11%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.65%EV -7.95%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.11%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.24%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.65%EV -7.95%E -0.815%K -0.908%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-03 15:45
BoyleSports🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 87.20%EV -4.41%E -4.05%K -49.01%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.80%EV -2.68%E -0.079%K -0.081%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.00%EV -10.31%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-03 15:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.44%EV -5.29%E -4.90%K -66.10%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.62%EV +3.05%E +0.085%K +0.087%G +0.003%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.94%EV -10.31%E -1.09%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-03 15:56
LeoVegas🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.52%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.19%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.29%EV -15.03%E -1.67%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:55
Coral🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.81%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -34.16%E -1.49%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -15.03%E -1.67%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 15:51
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.81%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 3.99%EV -34.16%E -1.49%K -1.55%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.20%EV -15.03%E -1.67%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-03 15:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.55%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%33.00I 3.03%NM 2.81%EV -5.54%E -0.168%K -0.173%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.64%EV -17.86%E -2.05%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-03 15:59
betfred_uk🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 85.69%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.53%EV -25.58%E -0.984%K -1.02%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.79%EV -19.75%E -2.32%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-03 15:10
Betsson🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.21%EV +20.22%E +0.482%K +0.493%G +0.100%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.05%EV -20.69%E -2.46%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 15:35
NordicBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -6.16%E -5.76%K -88.07%G +0.000%42.00I 2.38%NM 2.21%EV +20.22%E +0.482%K +0.493%G +0.100%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.05%EV -20.69%E -2.46%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 85.23%EV -7.04%E -6.64%K -117.37%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.12%EV -16.99%E -0.586%K -0.607%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.66%EV -26.83%E -3.46%K -3.97%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-03 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.94%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%0.9%2026-10-03 15:51
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.94%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%0.9%2026-10-03 15:51
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 90.94%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%14.00I 7.14%NM 7.08%0.9%2026-10-03 15:51