The School of Odds
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Austria v Kosovo

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 16:01 UTC

Final: Austria 3–1 Kosovo

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Austria (Local)

Prediction 60.80%1.64fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -7.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.72%60.77%60.89%61.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.541.551.5768.03%64.94%64.52%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kosovo (Visit)

Prediction 16.39%6.10fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.392%
Kelly +0.467%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.38%16.50%16.24%18.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.685.606.2519.61%17.60%17.86%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.81%4.38fair odd
EV -1.24%
Edge -0.286%
Kelly -0.372%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.80%22.73%22.87%24.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.084.154.3326.67%24.49%24.10%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Austria (Local): 60.80%; Kosovo (Visit): 16.39%; Draw: 22.81%. For Kosovo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.30%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.40%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.467%G +0.011%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-27 15:46
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.69%EV -5.15%E -3.30%K -9.20%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.40%EV +2.45%E +0.392%K +0.467%G +0.011%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-27 15:45
Unibet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.37%E -4.14%K -11.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.65%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-27 15:45
Casumo🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.37%E -4.14%K -11.80%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.63%EV -1.65%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-27 15:46
TAB🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.39%EV -5.76%E -3.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -1.65%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-27 15:55
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.17%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -1.65%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 16:00
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.80%E -5.87%K -17.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -1.65%E -0.274%K -0.329%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-27 15:55
Suprabets🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.28%EV -5.76%E -3.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.10%EV -3.28%E -0.557%K -0.670%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.62%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-27 15:43
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -5.76%E -3.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.97%EV -3.28%E -0.557%K -0.670%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.26%EV -7.62%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-27 15:55
FanDuel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.90%EV -8.19%E -5.43%K -16.07%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.84%EV -3.28%E -0.557%K -0.670%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 15:51
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.46%EV -5.15%E -3.30%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 16.39%EV -4.10%E -0.702%K -0.846%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.14%EV -1.24%E -0.286%K -0.372%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-27 15:59
BetRivers🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.56%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.17%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.98%EV -4.92%E -0.849%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -9.91%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 15:44
Bovada🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.02%EV -6.37%E -4.14%K -11.80%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.34%EV -5.74%E -0.999%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.64%EV -5.34%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-27 15:58
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.95%EV -8.20%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.60%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-27 16:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.33%EV -8.80%E -5.87%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -8.20%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.19%E -3.17%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-27 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.33%EV -8.80%E -5.87%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -8.20%E -1.46%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.51%EV -12.19%E -3.17%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-27 15:46
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.54%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.10%EV -8.86%E -1.59%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.36%EV -3.06%E -0.721%K -0.942%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-27 15:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -9.84%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-27 16:00
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.27%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -9.84%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-27 16:00
DraftKings🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.42%EV -5.15%E -3.30%K -9.20%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -9.84%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.44%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-27 16:00
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.98%E -4.56%K -13.17%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -9.84%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.05%E -2.83%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-27 16:00
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.80%E -5.87%K -17.60%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.84%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-27 15:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.27%EV -10.63%E -7.23%K -22.61%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.11%EV -9.84%E -1.79%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -14.47%E -3.86%K -5.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-27 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.08%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 15:59
Neds🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.08%EV -4.55%E -2.90%K -7.98%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.47%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-27 15:59
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.89%EV -5.76%E -3.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.19%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.92%EV -7.62%E -1.88%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-27 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.72%EV -5.76%E -3.72%K -10.48%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.14%EV -11.48%E -2.13%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -8.77%E -2.19%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-27 15:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 59.93%EV -6.37%E -4.14%K -11.80%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.10%EV -16.40%E -3.22%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.97%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-27 15:59
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.24%EV -7.59%E -4.99%K -14.59%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.95%EV -16.40%E -3.22%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -4.20%E -1.00%K -1.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-27 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 62.27%6.20I 16.13%NM 16.07%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.66%0.4%2026-09-27 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.03%0.9%2026-09-27 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.60I 62.50%NM 61.97%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.03%0.9%2026-09-27 16:00