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Armenia v Montenegro

2026-09-28 16:00 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Armenia (Local)

Prediction 35.49%2.82fair odd
EV -5.96%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.73%35.52%35.49%36.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.562.552.6541.67%39.00%39.22%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montenegro (Visit)

Prediction 36.14%2.77fair odd
EV -4.96%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.23%36.11%36.14%36.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.552.552.6341.67%39.27%39.22%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.38%3.52fair odd
EV -6.35%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -2.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.47%28.38%28.38%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.203.3034.48%31.75%31.25%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Armenia (Local): 35.49%; Montenegro (Visit): 36.14%; Draw: 28.38%. For Montenegro (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.63, with an expected value of -4.96%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.96%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -4.96%E -1.89%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 07:13
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.96%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -4.96%E -1.89%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 07:14
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.96%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -4.96%E -1.89%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 07:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.96%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -4.96%E -1.89%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 07:14
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -5.96%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.53%EV -4.96%E -1.89%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -9.19%E -2.87%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 07:14
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.96%EV -5.96%E -2.25%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.63%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.41%EV -10.61%E -3.37%K -4.94%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-22 07:14
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.73%EV -7.02%E -2.68%K -4.34%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.11%EV -8.94%E -3.55%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.16%EV -11.46%E -3.67%K -5.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-22 07:13
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -7.73%E -2.97%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -6.05%E -2.33%K -3.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -12.03%E -3.88%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-22 07:19
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.81%EV -9.51%E -3.73%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.52%EV -9.66%E -3.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-22 07:13
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -9.51%E -3.73%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -7.85%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -13.45%E -4.41%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-22 07:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -9.51%E -3.73%K -6.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.26%EV -7.85%E -3.08%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.48%EV -13.45%E -4.41%K -6.56%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-22 07:14
1xBet🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.01%EV -9.86%E -3.88%K -6.40%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 36.01%EV -8.22%E -3.23%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.97%EV -7.21%E -2.20%K -3.17%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-22 07:13
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -11.28%E -4.51%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.66%E -3.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -6.35%E -1.93%K -2.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-22 07:14
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -11.28%E -4.51%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.66%E -3.86%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -7.77%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-22 07:13
Winamax (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -13.06%E -5.33%K -9.00%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.67%EV -11.47%E -4.68%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.65%EV -13.45%E -4.41%K -6.56%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-22 07:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 35.24%EV -13.77%E -5.67%K -9.63%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 35.24%EV -12.19%E -5.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.53%EV -17.71%E -6.11%K -9.32%G +0.000%16.8%2026-09-22 13:44
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -14.83%E -6.18%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.71%EV -13.27%E -5.53%K -9.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -14.87%E -4.96%K -7.43%G +0.000%16.7%2026-09-22 07:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-22 07:14
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-22 07:14
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.17I 85.47%NM 32.84%1.12I 89.29%NM 34.31%160.2%2026-09-22 07:14