The School of Odds
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Armenia v Montenegro

Kickoff: 2026-09-28 16:00 UTC

Final: Armenia 2–3 Montenegro

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Armenia (Local)

Prediction 32.97%3.03fair odd
EV -4.38%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.20%33.02%33.01%35.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.802.802.9038.17%35.66%35.71%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montenegro (Visit)

Prediction 38.18%2.62fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.72%38.22%38.08%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.442.432.5543.48%40.90%41.15%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.85%3.47fair odd
EV +0.672%
Edge +0.193%
Kelly +0.270%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.76%28.76%28.91%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.223.253.4932.79%31.09%30.77%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Armenia (Local): 32.97%; Montenegro (Visit): 38.18%; Draw: 28.85%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.672%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.24%EV -6.69%E -2.36%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.00%EV -2.64%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.76%EV +0.672%E +0.193%K +0.270%G +0.002%3.2%2026-09-28 15:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.30%EV -5.04%E -1.75%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.47I 40.49%NM 38.82%EV -5.69%E -2.30%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.88%EV -0.770%E -0.224%K -0.316%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-28 15:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -4.81%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-28 15:54
Suprabets🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.17%EV -5.70%E -1.99%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -3.78%E -1.50%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 15:48
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -2.64%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-28 15:55
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -2.64%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-28 15:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -2.64%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-28 15:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -2.64%E -1.03%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-28 15:55
BetRivers🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -6.03%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -4.55%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-28 15:35
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.51%EV -4.38%E -1.51%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.48%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.01%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-28 15:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -4.38%E -1.51%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-28 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -4.38%E -1.51%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-28 15:55
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -4.38%E -1.51%K -2.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-28 15:55
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.04%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-28 15:55
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.04%EV -13.61%E -5.19%K -8.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.72%EV -4.55%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-28 15:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -9.32%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -10.27%E -4.37%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-28 15:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.20%EV -6.03%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.39%EV -11.04%E -4.74%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.41%EV -6.83%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-28 15:54
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -6.03%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.09%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.16%EV -7.69%E -2.40%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-28 15:55
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -10.97%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -4.55%E -1.82%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -7.69%E -2.40%K -3.50%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-28 15:39
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -6.03%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -7.60%E -3.14%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-28 15:55
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -6.03%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.21%EV -7.60%E -3.14%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.35%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-28 15:54
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.98%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -6.46%E -2.64%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-28 15:50
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.73%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.18%EV -8.37%E -3.49%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -9.14%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-28 15:55
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.35%EV -6.03%E -2.11%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.10%EV -7.60%E -3.14%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.55%EV -10.00%E -3.21%K -4.72%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-28 15:54
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -7.67%E -2.74%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.20%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.33%EV -10.58%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-28 15:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.97%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -7.22%E -2.97%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.58%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 15:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.53%EV -10.97%E -4.06%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.26%EV -7.22%E -2.97%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -10.58%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-28 15:35
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -9.32%E -3.39%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.18%E -5.30%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.58%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-28 15:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.70%EV -13.28%E -5.05%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.24%EV -9.13%E -3.84%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.06%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-09-28 15:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.71%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.37%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.92%0.2%2026-09-28 15:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.03%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-09-28 15:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.67%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.03%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.30%0.4%2026-09-28 15:55