The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Albania v San Marino

Kickoff: 2026-10-06 18:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

44 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Albania (Local)

Prediction 92.69%1.08fair odd
EV -4.53%
Edge -4.40%
Kelly -150.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.12%92.16%92.73%94.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.021.03100.00%98.13%98.04%97.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Marino (Visit)

Prediction 2.00%49.92fair odd
EV +22.19%
Edge +0.364%
Kelly +0.370%
Growth +0.082%

assuming max odds 61.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.54%2.16%1.90%4.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
22.0045.2051.0061.004.55%2.21%1.96%1.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.31%18.85fair odd
EV +24.68%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.271%

assuming max odds 23.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.04%5.68%5.37%8.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.5018.1818.6323.509.52%5.50%5.37%4.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Albania (Local): 92.69%; San Marino (Visit): 2.00%; Draw: 5.31%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.85. 22 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 23.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +24.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (44 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.09%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.50I 4.26%NM 4.04%EV +24.68%E +1.05%K +1.10%G +0.271%5.2%2026-10-05 09:05
Betway🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.90%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.90%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.21%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%3.4%2026-10-05 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.95%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.88%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%4.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.95%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.88%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%4.3%2026-10-05 09:05
BoyleSports🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.95%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.88%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%4.3%2026-10-04 13:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.95%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.88%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.17%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%4.3%2026-10-05 09:06
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.01%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%5.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Bally Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.01%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%5.3%2026-10-05 09:04
Casumo🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.01%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.13%EV +22.02%E +0.958%K +1.00%G +0.220%5.3%2026-10-05 09:05
Coral🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.68%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%56.00I 1.79%NM 1.72%EV +12.17%E +0.217%K +0.221%G +0.027%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%3.6%2026-10-05 09:26
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.68%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%56.00I 1.79%NM 1.72%EV +12.17%E +0.217%K +0.221%G +0.027%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%3.6%2026-10-05 13:55
1xBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.65%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%55.00I 1.82%NM 1.75%EV +10.17%E +0.185%K +0.188%G +0.019%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%3.7%2026-10-05 08:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.52%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.89%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%3.8%2026-10-04 16:20
888sport🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.52%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.89%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%3.8%2026-10-04 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.52%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.89%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%3.8%2026-10-04 16:20
Fanatics🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.58%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.87%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%4.8%2026-10-05 05:59
Winamax (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.92%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.61%EV -27.89%E -0.775%K -0.797%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.47%EV +11.41%E +0.544%K +0.571%G +0.065%6.5%2026-10-05 14:45
BetMGM🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.37%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.87%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.76%EV +6.11%E +0.305%K +0.322%G +0.020%5.0%2026-10-05 13:56
Marathon Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.14%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.88%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%19.25I 5.19%NM 4.98%EV +2.13%E +0.111%K +0.117%G +0.002%4.2%2026-10-05 08:10
William Hill🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.07%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.88%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +0.803%E +0.042%K +0.045%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-04 16:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.78%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV -17.87%E -0.436%K -0.447%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +0.803%E +0.042%K +0.045%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 13:55
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.78%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.29%EV -17.87%E -0.436%K -0.447%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.93%EV +0.803%E +0.042%K +0.045%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 13:55
BetUS🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.95%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.86%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%18.25I 5.48%NM 5.19%EV -3.18%E -0.174%K -0.184%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 15:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.63%EV -27.89%E -0.775%K -0.797%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.27%EV -4.50%E -0.250%K -0.265%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 13:35
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.63%EV -27.89%E -0.775%K -0.797%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.27%EV -4.50%E -0.250%K -0.265%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-04 13:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.59%EV -27.89%E -0.775%K -0.797%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -4.50%E -0.250%K -0.265%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:26
TABtouch🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.59%EV -27.89%E -0.775%K -0.797%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -4.50%E -0.250%K -0.265%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%36.00I 2.78%NM 2.59%EV -27.89%E -0.775%K -0.797%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.18%EV -4.50%E -0.250%K -0.265%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 13:26
Bovada🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.66%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.20%EV -55.93%E -2.54%K -2.66%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.14%EV -4.50%E -0.250%K -0.265%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 19:00
theScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.00%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%39.00I 2.56%NM 2.43%EV -21.88%E -0.561%K -0.576%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.57%EV -9.81%E -0.577%K -0.613%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-05 14:45
DraftKings🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.97%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.57%EV -47.92%E -1.84%K -1.92%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -9.81%E -0.577%K -0.613%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-04 23:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 91.74%EV -7.31%E -7.31%K +0.000%G +0.000%32.00I 3.13%NM 2.87%EV -35.90%E -1.12%K -1.16%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.40%EV -9.81%E -0.577%K -0.613%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 14:45
TAB🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.84%EV -4.53%E -4.40%K -150.93%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -20.42%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.19%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.54%EV +22.19%E +0.364%K +0.370%G +0.082%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.27%EV -20.42%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-05 14:45
LeoVegas🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.50%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.28%EV -17.87%E -0.436%K -0.447%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.22%EV -20.42%E -1.36%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-05 14:45
ReBet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.00%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.86%EV +0.156%E +0.003%K +0.003%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -31.03%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-05 14:45
betfred_uk🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.22%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.71%EV -31.89%E -0.938%K -0.966%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.08%EV -31.03%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-04 18:10
Suprabets🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.80%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.16%EV -41.91%E -1.45%K -1.50%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -31.03%E -2.39%K -2.59%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-05 12:34
Betclic (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.62%EV -6.38%E -6.32%K -638.16%G +0.000%48.00I 2.08%NM 1.91%EV -3.85%E -0.080%K -0.082%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.47%EV -35.01%E -2.86%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-05 14:42
MyBookie.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.90%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.29%EV -19.88%E -0.497%K -0.510%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.80%EV -37.66%E -3.21%K -3.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 08:45
NordicBet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 90.05%EV -7.31%E -7.31%K +0.000%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.77%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -41.64%E -3.79%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 00:54
Betsson🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 90.05%EV -7.31%E -7.31%K +0.000%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.77%EV +2.16%E +0.042%K +0.043%G +0.001%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.19%EV -41.64%E -3.79%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 00:55
betano_uk🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.12%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.22%EV -17.87%E -0.436%K -0.447%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -44.29%E -4.22%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-05 08:11
Bet Victor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 89.12%EV -5.45%E -5.35%K -272.74%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.22%EV -17.87%E -0.436%K -0.447%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -44.29%E -4.22%K -4.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-05 08:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.23%85.00I 1.18%NM 1.17%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%0.9%2026-10-05 15:11
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.23%85.00I 1.18%NM 1.17%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%0.9%2026-10-05 15:11
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.03I 97.09%NM 96.23%85.00I 1.18%NM 1.17%38.00I 2.63%NM 2.61%0.9%2026-10-05 15:11