Language:English
Albania v Belarus
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Albania (Local)
Prediction 57.57%1.74fair odd
EV -3.86%
Edge -2.31%
Kelly -5.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.96%57.38%57.63%59.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.511.611.611.6766.23%62.19%62.11%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Belarus (Visit)
Prediction 17.27%5.79fair odd
EV +0.139%
Edge +0.024%
Kelly +0.029%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.14%17.33%17.33%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.405.405.8020.00%18.52%18.52%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 25.16%3.97fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -0.878%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.84
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.36%25.29%25.04%26.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.673.703.8428.99%27.21%27.03%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Albania (Local): 57.57%; Belarus (Visit): 17.27%; Draw: 25.16%. For Belarus (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.139%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -7.31%E -4.54%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.33%EV +0.139%E +0.024%K +0.029%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.85%EV -4.13%E -1.08%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-26 17:51 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -9.04%E -5.72%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -0.724%E -0.126%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 18:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -9.04%E -5.72%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -0.724%E -0.126%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.96%EV -9.04%E -5.72%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.20%EV -0.724%E -0.126%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -0.724%E -0.126%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.11%EV -9.61%E -6.12%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -0.724%E -0.126%K -0.152%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.76%EV -4.43%E -2.67%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 17.28%EV -4.18%E -0.753%K -0.918%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.97%EV -3.37%E -0.878%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.32%EV -6.74%E -4.16%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -5.04%E -0.916%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -9.41%E -2.61%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-26 18:44 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -7.89%E -4.93%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -5.04%E -0.916%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.41%E -2.61%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.90%EV -6.74%E -4.16%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -5.04%E -0.916%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -11.93%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.38%EV -7.31%E -4.54%K -11.99%G +0.000% | 5.45I 18.35%NM 16.95%EV -5.90%E -1.08%K -1.33%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -9.41%E -2.61%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%EV -6.74%E -4.16%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -6.77%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -13.18%E -3.82%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 18:25 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.51%EV -6.74%E -4.16%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.95%EV -6.77%E -1.25%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.54%EV -13.18%E -3.82%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-26 18:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -3.86%E -2.31%K -5.76%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.95%EV -8.49%E -1.60%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.10%EV -4.63%E -1.22%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-26 18:42 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 58.47%EV -13.07%E -8.65%K -25.62%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.66%EV -8.49%E -1.60%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.87%EV -10.67%E -3.01%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.00%EV -5.01%E -3.04%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.92%EV -9.36%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.01%E -3.04%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -9.36%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.89%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.01%E -3.04%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -9.36%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.89%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -5.01%E -3.04%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -9.36%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -6.89%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-26 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 57.83%EV -8.46%E -5.32%K -14.34%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -9.36%E -1.78%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 24.65%EV -6.14%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 18:38 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.85%EV -7.89%E -4.93%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.80%EV -10.22%E -1.97%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.36%EV -4.38%E -1.15%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 18:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.46%EV -7.89%E -4.93%K -13.14%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -11.95%E -2.34%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.52%EV -5.64%E -1.50%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-26 18:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.46%EV -5.58%E -3.40%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.52%EV -13.67%E -2.73%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -6.89%E -1.86%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.96%EV -6.74%E -4.16%K -10.86%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.13%EV -13.67%E -2.73%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.90%EV -11.93%E -3.41%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-26 17:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.77%EV -11.92%E -7.79%K -22.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.68%EV -13.67%E -2.73%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.55%EV -9.41%E -2.61%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-26 18:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-26 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-26 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.43% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.91% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.66% | 1.4% | 2026-09-26 18:45 |