The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Union Saint-Gilloise v Lech Poznań

2026-11-26 17:45 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 67.39%1.48fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.54%
Kelly -8.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.59%67.39%67.70%68.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.381.381.4377.52%72.73%72.20%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lech Poznań (Visit)

Prediction 14.01%7.14fair odd
EV +5.11%
Edge +0.681%
Kelly +0.786%
Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.73%14.01%13.58%15.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.466.157.5018.18%15.47%16.26%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.59%5.38fair odd
EV -2.57%
Edge -0.490%
Kelly -0.606%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.11%18.59%18.72%20.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.254.784.835.2423.53%20.90%20.73%19.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 67.39%; Lech Poznań (Visit): 14.01%; Draw: 18.59%. For Lech Poznań (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.14. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 7.50, producing a positive expected value of +5.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.65%E -4.04%K -14.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV +5.11%E +0.681%K +0.786%G +0.040%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-06 15:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -7.00%E -5.07%K -18.42%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.98%EV +1.60%E +0.221%K +0.257%G +0.004%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.82%EV -7.03%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-06 15:54
1xBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.79%EV -3.63%E -2.54%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.46%EV +0.904%E +0.126%K +0.146%G +0.001%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.75%EV -3.87%E -0.749%K -0.928%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-06 16:06
Marathon Bet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.79%EV -4.98%E -3.53%K -12.14%G +0.000%7.10I 14.08%NM 13.46%EV -0.497%E -0.070%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.74%EV -5.17%E -1.01%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-06 16:06
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.29%EV -6.33%E -4.55%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.98I 14.33%NM 13.60%EV -2.18%E -0.312%K -0.364%G +0.000%5.24I 19.08%NM 18.11%EV -2.57%E -0.490%K -0.606%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-06 16:00
ReBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.23%EV -6.33%E -4.55%K -16.22%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.62%EV -13.11%E -2.11%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -16.33%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-06 13:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 66.75%EV -13.06%E -10.13%K -45.05%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.12%EV -14.51%E -2.38%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.13%EV -16.33%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%16.1%2026-11-06 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.83%EV -5.65%E -4.04%K -14.13%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.36%EV -15.91%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -8.89%E -1.81%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-06 13:55
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.36%EV -7.00%E -5.07%K -18.42%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.03%EV -15.91%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.61%EV -14.47%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-06 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.09%EV -8.35%E -6.14%K -23.19%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.98%EV -15.91%E -2.65%K -3.18%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.92%EV -11.68%E -2.46%K -3.11%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-06 13:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 64.76%EV -10.37%E -7.80%K -31.42%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.98%EV -19.42%E -3.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.26%EV -20.98%E -4.94%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.1%2026-11-06 13:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.59%EV -9.69%E -7.24%K -28.51%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.74%EV -22.92%E -4.17%K -5.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.67%EV -18.19%E -4.13%K -5.35%G +0.000%15.5%2026-11-06 13:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 63.85%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.28%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.87%16.9%2026-11-06 12:50

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