Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise v Hapoel Be'er Sheva

2026-10-22 16:45 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Union Saint-Gilloise (Local)

Prediction 62.68%1.60fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.27%62.67%62.64%63.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.411.481.481.5570.92%67.72%67.57%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hapoel Be'er Sheva (Visit)

Prediction 16.36%6.11fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.308%
Kelly -0.370%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.79%16.55%16.40%17.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.625.606.0020.00%17.80%17.86%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.96%4.77fair odd
EV -0.424%
Edge -0.089%
Kelly -0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.86%20.78%20.96%21.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.434.504.7523.81%22.58%22.22%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Union Saint-Gilloise (Local): 62.68%; Hapoel Be'er Sheva (Visit): 16.36%; Draw: 20.96%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.77. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.75, with an expected value of -0.424%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.54%EV -2.85%E -1.84%K -5.18%G +0.000%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.48%EV -3.81%E -0.649%K -0.781%G +0.000%4.62I 21.65%NM 20.98%EV -3.15%E -0.682%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-16 00:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.10%E -2.68%K -7.74%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.49%EV -5.12%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.02%EV -4.62%E -1.01%K -1.30%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-16 00:10
Coolbet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.85%EV -4.73%E -3.11%K -9.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.92%EV -1.85%E -0.308%K -0.370%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-16 00:30
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.16%EV -5.98%E -3.99%K -11.97%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.79%EV -1.85%E -0.308%K -0.370%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-16 00:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.73%EV -5.98%E -3.99%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.36%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 00:30
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.27%EV -5.98%E -3.99%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.51%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.22%EV -9.23%E -2.13%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-16 00:09
SportsBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.15%EV -6.61%E -4.44%K -13.49%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.95%EV -3.49%E -0.591%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-16 00:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.24%E -4.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -0.424%E -0.089%K -0.113%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 00:35
Fanatics🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.74%EV -7.24%E -4.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.41%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -0.424%E -0.089%K -0.113%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-16 00:34
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.30%EV -7.24%E -4.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.88%EV -3.49%E -0.591%K -0.711%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Bet Right🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.74%EV -7.24%E -4.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.15%EV -5.94%E -1.03%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -7.76%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 00:35
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.47%EV -7.24%E -4.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.51%EV -8.39%E -1.50%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -7.76%E -1.76%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-15 23:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.38%EV -7.24%E -4.89%K -15.08%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.10%EV -11.67%E -2.16%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.52%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-15 23:55
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.83%EV -7.86%E -5.35%K -16.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.95%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-15 23:54
ReBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.83%EV -7.86%E -5.35%K -16.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.53%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -11.95%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-15 23:55
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -9.12%E -6.29%K -20.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-16 00:35
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.22%EV -9.74%E -6.77%K -22.14%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.23%EV -5.66%E -1.26%K -1.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-16 00:35
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.84%EV -9.74%E -6.77%K -22.14%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.96%EV -14.12%E -2.69%K -3.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -11.95%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-16 00:49
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.48%EV -10.37%E -7.25%K -24.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.25%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.27%EV -11.95%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-15 23:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.48%EV -10.37%E -7.25%K -24.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.58%EV -18.21%E -3.64%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.93%EV -11.95%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-15 23:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 62.81%EV -11.62%E -8.24%K -28.35%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -10.03%E -1.82%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.09%EV -11.95%E -2.85%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-15 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.47I 68.03%NM 62.40%5.88I 17.01%NM 15.60%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.00%9.0%2026-10-16 01:10
Smarkets◎1.44I 69.44%NM 61.29%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.65%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.06%13.3%2026-10-15 23:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35