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SK Sturm Graz v Rennes

2026-09-16 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SK Sturm Graz (Local)

Prediction 33.18%3.01fair odd
EV -2.11%
Edge -0.714%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.74%33.18%33.44%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.702.9540.00%36.61%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rennes (Visit)

Prediction 39.31%2.54fair odd
EV -5.66%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -4.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.41%39.31%39.04%40.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.302.302.4046.51%43.51%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.51%3.64fair odd
EV -6.47%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -2.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.45%27.51%27.52%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.303.303.4031.25%30.30%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: SK Sturm Graz (Local): 33.18%; Rennes (Visit): 39.31%; Draw: 27.51%. For SK Sturm Graz (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.95, with an expected value of -2.11%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.02%EV -2.11%E -0.714%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.63%E -3.25%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.78%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-30 22:00
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -2.11%E -0.714%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.47%E -1.90%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-30 22:05
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.85%EV -3.76%E -1.30%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.16%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 21:58
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.06%EV -7.08%E -2.53%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -11.56%E -5.14%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-30 22:00
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.45%E -2.71%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 01:29
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.87%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.42%EV -6.45%E -2.71%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-31 01:30
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.40%E -3.85%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.39%EV -9.60%E -4.17%K -7.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -7.84%E -2.34%K -3.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-30 22:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.67%EV -12.06%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.30%EV -10.77%E -4.75%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 21:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.94%EV -12.06%E -4.55%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.60%EV -15.49%E -7.21%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.45%EV -9.22%E -2.79%K -4.01%G +0.000%14.6%2026-08-30 21:09
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -13.72%E -5.28%K -8.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -5.66%E -2.36%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.97%E -3.74%K -5.44%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-31 01:14
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.42%EV -17.04%E -6.82%K -11.36%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.11%EV -13.53%E -6.15%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%EV -10.60%E -3.26%K -4.71%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-30 21:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 25.91%2.12I 47.17%NM 35.69%1.97I 50.76%NM 38.40%32.2%2026-08-31 01:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 25.91%2.12I 47.17%NM 35.69%1.97I 50.76%NM 38.40%32.2%2026-08-31 01:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 34.48%2.12I 47.17%NM 31.56%1.97I 50.76%NM 33.96%49.5%2026-08-31 01:05