La escuela de los momios

SC Freiburg v SC Braga

Inicio: 2026-05-07 19:00 UTC

Final: SC Freiburg 3–1 SC Braga

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Freiburg (Local)

Predicción 55.50%1.80momio equitativo
EV -1.20%
Ventaja -0.676%
Kelly -1.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.91%55.48%55.58%56.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.651.701.701.7860.61%58.75%58.82%56.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

SC Braga (Visitante)

Predicción 18.24%5.48momio equitativo
EV +1.22%
Ventaja +0.220%
Kelly +0.269%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.29%18.20%18.22%19.55%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.755.195.235.5521.05%19.29%19.12%18.02%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.26%3.81momio equitativo
EV -0.219%
Ventaja -0.058%
Kelly -0.078%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.96%26.32%26.21%27.43%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.573.603.8029.41%27.98%27.78%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 55.94%EV -4.53%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.34%EV +1.22%E +0.220%K +0.269%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-07 18:45
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.94%EV -4.53%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.34%EV +1.22%E +0.220%K +0.269%G +0.003%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.73%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-07 18:45
Unibet (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.97%EV -3.42%E -1.97%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.71%EV +0.310%E +0.056%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.32%EV -2.84%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-07 18:55
ATG (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.97%EV -3.42%E -1.97%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.71%EV +0.310%E +0.056%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.32%EV -2.84%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-07 18:54
Svenska Spel1.74I 57.47%NM 55.97%EV -3.42%E -1.97%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.71%EV +0.310%E +0.056%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.32%EV -2.84%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-07 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.74I 57.47%NM 55.77%EV -3.42%E -1.97%K -4.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.64%EV +0.310%E +0.056%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-07 18:54
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.28%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV +0.310%E +0.056%K +0.069%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 18:35
LowVig.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 55.81%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.88%EV -1.51%E -0.280%K -0.344%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.31%EV -3.63%E -0.990%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-07 18:50
BetOnline.ag1.73I 57.80%NM 55.81%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.88%EV -1.51%E -0.280%K -0.344%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.31%EV -3.63%E -0.990%K -1.36%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-07 18:50
Pinnacle1.73I 57.80%NM 55.73%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.85%EV -1.51%E -0.280%K -0.344%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.41%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-07 18:50
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -7.86%E -4.74%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.38%EV -1.51%E -0.280%K -0.344%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 18:45
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 55.63%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.95%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 18:50
Unibet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.89%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:55
Casumo1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.89%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.89%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:55
betPARX1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.89%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:55
Bally Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.89%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:55
Suprabets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.42%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.88%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.70%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:52
TABtouch1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -6.75%E -4.02%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
Grosvenor1.68I 59.52%NM 55.86%EV -6.75%E -4.02%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.43%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:55
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.51%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.59%EV -3.34%E -0.630%K -0.776%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.90%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 18:50
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.73%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.15%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.68%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 18:00
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 55.68%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.03%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.29%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 18:00
Betclic (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -2.84%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 18:55
BetMGM1.69I 59.17%NM 55.82%EV -6.20%E -3.67%K -8.98%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 18:00
Everygame1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 18:49
Bovada1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.89%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 18:50
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 55.85%EV -7.86%E -4.74%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.66%EV -4.25%E -0.809%K -1.000%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-07 18:55
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 55.36%EV -2.87%E -1.64%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.23I 19.12%NM 18.52%EV -4.61%E -0.882%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.11%EV -2.58%E -0.696%K -0.953%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-07 18:20
Codere (IT)1.71I 58.48%NM 55.64%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.30%EV -5.16%E -0.993%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -6.75%E -4.02%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -5.16%E -0.993%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 18:00
Neds1.68I 59.52%NM 55.46%EV -6.75%E -4.02%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -5.16%E -0.993%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 18:00
Marathon Bet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.45%EV -1.20%E -0.676%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.00%EV -6.98%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.55%EV -4.16%E -1.14%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-07 18:54
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 56.45%EV -6.75%E -4.02%K -9.93%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.59%EV -6.98%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -0.219%E -0.058%K -0.078%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 18:35
NetBet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.91%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.21%EV -6.98%E -1.37%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:55
1xBet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.03%EV -2.31%E -1.31%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.04I 19.84%NM 19.22%EV -8.08%E -1.60%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.76%EV -1.27%E -0.338%K -0.460%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-07 18:50
theScore Bet1.71I 58.48%NM 55.43%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -2.84%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 18:35
betfred_uk1.73I 57.80%NM 54.75%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.94%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.31%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 18:54
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.20%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.77%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -1.53%E -0.408%K -0.557%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 18:50
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 18:50
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 18:50
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 18:49
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 18:50
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -3.98%E -2.30%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 18:50
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.16%EV -7.86%E -4.74%K -11.92%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -2.84%E -0.769%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 18:35
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 18:50
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 54.77%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 18:43
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.62%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:49
Caesars1.71I 58.48%NM 54.20%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-07 18:49
PlayUp1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-07 18:50
TAB1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-07 18:50
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -5.64%E -3.32%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-07 18:49
Unibet (FR)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -7.31%E -4.38%K -10.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.34%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 18:35
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.51%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.32%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -8.10%E -2.31%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-07 18:55
LiveScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-07 18:55
Virgin Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 55.09%EV -8.42%E -5.10%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -8.81%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -10.72%E -3.15%K -4.47%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-07 18:55
Betr (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.46%EV -4.53%E -2.64%K -6.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.52%EV -12.46%E -2.60%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -5.47%E -1.52%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 18:55
Bet Right1.71I 58.48%NM 54.30%EV -5.09%E -2.98%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.55%EV -13.37%E -2.81%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.15%EV -6.78%E -1.91%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.84%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.85%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.31%0.0%2026-05-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.53%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.17%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.30%0.1%2026-05-07 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.66%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.12%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%0.4%2026-05-07 18:50
Smarkets1.78I 56.18%NM 55.80%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.06%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.14%0.7%2026-05-07 18:55
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.79%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.73%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.48%0.7%2026-05-07 18:55
Kalshi1.72I 58.14%NM 56.38%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.44%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.19%3.1%2026-05-07 18:35