The School of Odds
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SC Freiburg v Celta Vigo

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Freiburg (Local)

Prediction 39.80%2.51fair odd
EV -5.27%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -3.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.89%39.80%39.80%40.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.302.3846.51%44.02%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Celta Vigo (Visit)

Prediction 32.40%3.09fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.74%32.40%32.40%33.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.852.852.9536.36%35.09%35.09%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.80%3.60fair odd
EV -5.49%
Edge -1.62%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.07%27.80%27.80%28.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.333.353.4030.77%30.00%29.85%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Freiburg (Local): 39.80%; Celta Vigo (Visit): 32.40%; Draw: 27.80%. For Celta Vigo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -4.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.89%EV -5.27%E -2.21%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.06%EV -9.28%E -3.31%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.27%E -2.51%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-20 02:44
FanDuel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -4.42%E -1.50%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.49%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 05:25
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.04%E -2.08%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.49%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-20 05:24
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.49%EV -8.45%E -3.67%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.11%EV -6.04%E -2.08%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.39%EV -5.49%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-20 05:23
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -12.43%E -5.65%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.91%EV -9.28%E -3.31%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.49%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-20 05:24
PMU (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.93%EV -14.42%E -6.71%K -12.54%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.00%EV -10.90%E -3.96%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -9.66%E -2.97%K -4.29%G +0.000%13.6%2026-03-20 05:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 35.59%3.50I 28.57%NM 14.64%1.03I 97.09%NM 49.76%95.1%2026-03-20 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 35.59%3.50I 28.57%NM 14.64%1.03I 97.09%NM 49.76%95.1%2026-03-20 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 35.25%3.50I 28.57%NM 14.50%1.01I 99.01%NM 50.25%97.0%2026-03-20 03:34