La escuela de los momios

Nottingham Forest v Porto

Inicio: 2026-04-16 19:00 UTC

Final: Nottingham Forest 1–0 Porto

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Nottingham Forest (Local)

Predicción 40.94%2.44momio equitativo
EV +0.720%
Ventaja +0.293%
Kelly +0.493%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.46

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.43%40.96%41.00%42.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.322.302.4645.45%43.08%43.48%40.65%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Porto (Visitante)

Predicción 28.72%3.48momio equitativo
EV -2.35%
Ventaja -0.692%
Kelly -0.981%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
27.59%28.69%28.63%33.04%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.853.263.253.4035.09%30.68%30.77%29.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 30.34%3.30momio equitativo
EV +0.114%
Ventaja +0.035%
Kelly +0.050%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.53%30.35%30.37%31.12%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.113.103.3033.33%32.14%32.26%30.30%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.46I 40.65%NM 39.44%EV +0.720%E +0.293%K +0.493%G +0.004%3.27I 30.58%NM 29.67%EV -6.09%E -1.86%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.90%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet (FR)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV +0.310%E +0.127%K +0.214%G +0.001%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -18.15%E -6.37%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV +0.114%E +0.035%K +0.050%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.25%EV -0.509%E -0.209%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.56%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-16 18:55
ATG (SE)2.43I 41.15%NM 40.25%EV -0.509%E -0.209%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.56%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-16 18:55
Svenska Spel2.43I 41.15%NM 40.25%EV -0.509%E -0.209%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.19%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.56%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-16 18:55
PMU (FR)2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -0.509%E -0.209%K -0.356%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.15%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.15%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet (NL)2.40I 41.67%NM 40.35%EV -1.74%E -0.724%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.91%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-16 18:50
betfred_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.82%EV -2.56%E -1.07%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-16 18:44
Marathon Bet2.36I 42.37%NM 41.05%EV -3.37%E -1.43%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.49%EV -2.35%E -0.692%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.46%EV -3.53%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 18:20
Coolbet2.35I 42.55%NM 41.23%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.50%EV -2.35%E -0.692%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.28%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 18:15
Pinnacle2.35I 42.55%NM 41.19%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.56%EV -2.64%E -0.779%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-16 18:45
BetOnline.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 41.17%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.95%EV -2.01%E -0.622%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 18:55
LowVig.ag2.35I 42.55%NM 41.17%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.95%EV -2.01%E -0.622%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-16 18:55
Betsson2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-16 18:30
NordicBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.87%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.11%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.02%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-16 18:40
ReBet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.85%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.57%EV -3.50%E -1.04%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.57%EV -4.74%E -1.51%K -2.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-16 18:05
DraftKings2.35I 42.55%NM 40.68%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.35%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 18:55
BetUS2.35I 42.55%NM 40.68%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.97%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.35%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 18:54
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-16 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:55
betPARX2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Bally Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.30%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.14%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Betr (AU)2.35I 42.55%NM 39.93%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.79%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-16 18:45
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -3.78%E -1.61%K -2.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -10.97%E -3.54%K -5.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.13%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:45
Codere (IT)2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -4.60%E -1.98%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.71%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 18:10
Grosvenor2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.60%E -1.98%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:45
TABtouch2.33I 42.92%NM 40.31%EV -4.60%E -1.98%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.90%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.79%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:45
FanDuel2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 18:00
Coral2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 18:05
BetMGM2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 18:10
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 18:05
BetRivers2.30I 43.48%NM 40.82%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.89%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.29%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:05
Bet Victor2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.27%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.02%EV -5.35%E -1.71%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 18:54
Fanatics2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:00
TAB2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:40
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:55
SportsBet2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:25
Caesars2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:20
888sport2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:45
William Hill2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:44
888sport (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:45
Mr Green (SE)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.60%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:45
PlayUp2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 18:40
BoyleSports2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -5.83%E -2.54%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 18:00
Suprabets2.29I 43.67%NM 41.40%EV -6.24%E -2.73%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.30%EV -3.79%E -1.13%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.29%EV -5.04%E -1.61%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-16 18:06
Bovada2.29I 43.67%NM 40.93%EV -6.24%E -2.73%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 18:50
Sky Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -2.92%E -0.912%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:05
Neds2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:05
Winamax (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.37%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.55%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 18:05
NetBet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -5.23%E -1.58%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -7.47%E -2.45%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-16 18:45
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -8.10%E -2.53%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.95%E -1.92%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 18:05
Paddy Power2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -6.66%E -2.05%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-16 18:25
LiveScore Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.53%E -3.03%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-16 18:55
Virgin Bet2.25I 44.44%NM 40.58%EV -7.88%E -3.50%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.99%EV -9.53%E -3.03%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-16 18:55
Betclic (FR)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -9.93%E -4.51%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -2.35%E -0.692%K -0.981%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -4.44%E -1.41%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-16 18:31
Fliff2.20I 45.45%NM 41.12%EV -9.93%E -4.51%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.72%EV -9.53%E -3.03%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -8.99%E -3.00%K -4.49%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-16 18:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook2.44I 40.98%NM 41.04%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.35%-0.1%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.22%0.3%2026-04-16 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.87%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.91%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.22%0.3%2026-04-16 18:50
Smarkets2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09%0.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.70%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.21%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.09%0.7%2026-04-16 18:50
Kalshi2.38I 42.02%NM 40.79%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.06%3.0%2026-04-16 18:55