The School of Odds
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Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nottingham Forest (Local)

Prediction 38.86%2.57fair odd
EV -6.73%
Edge -2.80%
Kelly -4.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.55%38.86%38.86%39.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.392.402.4043.48%41.92%41.67%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aston Villa (Visit)

Prediction 32.85%3.04fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.09%32.85%32.85%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.832.862.8837.04%35.30%34.97%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.29%3.54fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.54%28.29%28.29%29.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.263.203.4032.26%30.64%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nottingham Forest (Local): 38.86%; Aston Villa (Visit): 32.85%; Draw: 28.29%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.54. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -3.83%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -5.39%E -1.87%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 23:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 23:39
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -3.83%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-16 23:40
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -5.39%E -1.87%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 00:19
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -5.39%E -1.87%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 00:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -5.39%E -1.87%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 00:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -5.39%E -1.87%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-17 00:19
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.65%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-16 23:39
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.73%E -2.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.02%E -2.86%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -6.65%E -2.02%K -2.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-16 23:33
Suprabets🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.22%EV -9.06%E -3.87%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.09%EV -6.05%E -2.11%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -9.48%E -2.96%K -4.31%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 23:28
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.55%EV -10.62%E -4.62%K -8.17%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -11.30%E -4.19%K -6.65%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -12.31%E -3.97%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-16 23:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 42.06%2.80I 35.71%NM 20.73%1.56I 64.10%NM 37.21%72.3%2026-04-17 00:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 42.06%2.80I 35.71%NM 20.73%1.56I 64.10%NM 37.21%72.3%2026-04-17 00:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 41.96%2.80I 35.71%NM 20.68%1.55I 64.52%NM 37.36%72.7%2026-04-17 00:00