Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lillestrom v Torreense

Inicio: 2026-09-17 19:00 UTC

Final: Lillestrom 1–2 Torreense

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lillestrom (Local)

Predicción 53.74%1.86momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -1.51%
Kelly -3.38%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.81

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.40%53.70%53.88%55.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.741.751.8159.52%57.34%57.14%55.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Torreense (Visitante)

Predicción 21.38%4.68momio equitativo
EV +1.55%
Ventaja +0.326%
Kelly +0.412%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.23%21.43%21.28%23.12%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.404.404.7525.00%22.71%22.73%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.88%4.02momio equitativo
EV -0.465%
Ventaja -0.116%
Kelly -0.155%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.07%24.87%24.84%26.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.553.793.804.0028.17%26.42%26.32%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Lillestrom (Local): 53.74%; Torreense (Visitante): 21.38%; Empate: 24.88%. Para Torreense (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.68. 3 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.75, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.55%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
BetUS🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.75%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.40%EV +1.55%E +0.326%K +0.412%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.95%E -0.757%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-17 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.89%EV -5.42%E -3.08%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV +1.55%E +0.326%K +0.412%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -2.95%E -0.757%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-17 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.89%EV -5.42%E -3.08%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.34%EV +1.55%E +0.326%K +0.412%G +0.006%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -2.95%E -0.757%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-17 18:35
Fanatics🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.01%EV -8.11%E -4.74%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.23%EV -0.592%E -0.127%K -0.162%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-17 18:10
Pinnacle🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 53.96%EV -3.81%E -2.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.95%EV -1.45%E -0.314%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.09%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%3.5%2026-09-17 18:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:40
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:40
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:40
Casumo🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:40
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.93%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.07%EV -0.465%E -0.116%K -0.155%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-17 18:40
Suprabets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.50%EV -6.50%E -3.73%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -1.66%E -0.361%K -0.461%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.89%EV -5.19%E -1.36%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-17 18:48
NordicBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 54.00%EV -4.35%E -2.44%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.36%EV -3.80%E -0.844%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.64%EV -2.95%E -0.757%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-17 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.96%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -3.80%E -0.844%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.81%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-17 18:30
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.74%EV -3.80%E -0.844%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.70%EV -4.35%E -2.44%K -5.57%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.48%EV -4.87%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.83%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-17 18:55
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.12%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.28%EV -4.87%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.60%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-17 18:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.94%EV -3.27%E -1.82%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.66%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.41%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-17 18:35
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.35%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.46%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.18%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-17 18:30
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-17 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -7.03%E -4.07%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 18:45
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.10%EV -7.03%E -4.07%K -9.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.63%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 18:40
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.39%EV -8.11%E -4.74%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.71%EV -8.65%E -5.09%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.16%EV -4.20%E -1.09%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-17 18:40
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 18:55
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-17 18:55
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.03%EV -8.11%E -4.74%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -5.94%E -1.35%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-17 18:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.40%EV -8.65%E -5.09%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.26%EV -7.01%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-17 18:40
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.76%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.23%EV -7.01%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -11.66%E -3.29%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-17 18:55
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -9.72%E -5.79%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -7.01%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -9.72%E -5.79%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -7.01%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 18:35
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.70%EV -9.72%E -5.79%K -14.29%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.12%EV -7.01%E -1.61%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.53%EV -7.43%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.90%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.38%EV -7.43%E -1.72%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-17 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.71%EV -2.73%E -1.51%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -8.07%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-17 18:30
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.85%EV -3.27%E -1.82%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.12%EV -8.07%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-17 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.77%EV -8.11%E -4.74%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -8.07%E -1.88%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 18:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.81%EV -8.11%E -4.74%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -9.14%E -2.15%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-17 18:30
ReBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.40%EV -3.27%E -1.82%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.46%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-17 18:40
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.81%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-17 18:50
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -5.96%E -3.40%K -7.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 18:30
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.64%EV -4.88%E -2.76%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-17 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -8.65%E -5.09%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-17 18:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -8.65%E -5.09%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -10.21%E -2.43%K -3.19%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.93%E -2.14%K -2.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-17 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.15%EV -9.18%E -5.43%K -13.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.91%EV -12.35%E -3.01%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-17 18:49
Winamax (DE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.54%EV -5.42%E -3.08%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -5.44%E -1.43%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-17 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.66%EV -6.50%E -3.73%K -8.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.43%EV -6.69%E -1.78%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-17 18:30
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.71%EV -8.65%E -5.09%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -14.49%E -3.62%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -10.42%E -2.89%K -4.01%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-17 18:33
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.86I 53.76%NM 53.64%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.78%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.58%0.2%2026-09-17 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.77%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-09-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.77%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.72%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.51%0.5%2026-09-17 18:55
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.32%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.43%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.25%2.8%2026-09-17 18:40