The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Crystal Palace v Real Sociedad

2026-11-26 20:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Crystal Palace (Local)

Prediction 45.82%2.18fair odd
EV -2.40%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.39%45.82%45.90%46.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.991.982.1353.76%50.19%50.51%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Real Sociedad (Visit)

Prediction 29.82%3.35fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.827%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.72%29.82%29.99%30.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.153.2934.48%32.04%31.80%30.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.36%4.11fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.894%
Kelly -1.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.96%24.36%24.11%25.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.703.753.9629.41%27.05%26.67%25.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Crystal Palace (Local): 45.82%; Real Sociedad (Visit): 29.82%; Draw: 24.36%. For Real Sociedad (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.29, with an expected value of -1.89%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 45.53%EV -2.40%E -1.13%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.48%EV -1.89%E -0.576%K -0.827%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.99%EV -5.49%E -1.41%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-06 15:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.54%EV -3.77%E -1.80%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.43%EV -3.09%E -0.950%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.03%EV -6.95%E -1.82%K -2.46%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-06 15:50
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.65%EV -4.23%E -2.03%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.01%EV -5.17%E -1.63%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.34%EV -4.51%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-06 14:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.08%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV -3.09%E -0.950%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -7.44%E -1.96%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-06 16:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.93%EV -6.07%E -2.96%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.97%EV -3.09%E -0.950%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-06 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.52%EV -9.27%E -4.68%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -6.07%E -1.93%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -7.44%E -1.96%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-06 15:30
ReBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.86%EV -9.27%E -4.68%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 28.92%EV -6.37%E -2.03%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.22%EV -12.31%E -3.42%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.1%2026-11-06 15:29
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -10.65%E -5.46%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.08%EV -7.56%E -2.44%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.70%EV -11.09%E -3.04%K -4.18%G +0.000%10.9%2026-11-06 15:30
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -10.65%E -5.46%K -11.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -8.65%E -2.31%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.3%2026-11-06 14:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.39%EV -12.94%E -6.81%K -14.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.24%EV -12.03%E -4.08%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -17.18%E -5.05%K -7.16%G +0.000%15.9%2026-11-06 15:30
Winamax (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.76%EV -13.86%E -7.37%K -15.74%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.66%EV -13.52%E -4.66%K -7.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.58%EV -14.74%E -4.21%K -5.90%G +0.000%16.2%2026-11-06 15:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.31%EV -14.77%E -7.94%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.72%EV -10.54%E -3.51%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.97%EV -15.96%E -4.63%K -6.52%G +0.000%16.1%2026-11-06 15:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.89I 52.91%NM 45.40%2.96I 33.78%NM 28.99%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.61%16.5%2026-11-06 15:30

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