Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bournemouth v AC Milan

2026-10-22 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bournemouth (Local)

Prediction 43.15%2.32fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -1.10%
Kelly -1.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.88%43.05%43.14%44.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.2650.00%46.49%46.51%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AC Milan (Visit)

Prediction 30.82%3.24fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.14%30.83%30.85%31.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.003.003.1235.71%33.34%33.33%32.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.03%3.84fair odd
EV -3.44%
Edge -0.927%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.40%26.12%26.02%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.553.603.7129.41%28.14%27.78%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bournemouth (Local): 43.15%; AC Milan (Visit): 30.82%; Draw: 26.03%. For Bournemouth (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.26, with an expected value of -2.48%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.85%EV -2.48%E -1.10%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.04%EV -3.83%E -1.23%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.10%EV -3.44%E -0.927%K -1.27%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-16 00:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -2.92%E -1.30%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.80%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-15 23:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.86%EV -3.78%E -1.69%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.03%EV -5.06%E -1.64%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.11%EV -4.74%E -1.30%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-15 23:50
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.07%E -2.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 23:25
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -5.07%E -2.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-15 23:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.87%EV -5.07%E -2.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.93%EV -5.99%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-15 23:25
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -5.07%E -2.31%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.91%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-15 23:55
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.10%EV -5.94%E -2.72%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.80%EV -5.99%E -1.96%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.10%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-15 23:24
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.65%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.44%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-15 23:55
Bet Right🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 23:24
LeoVegas🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 23:30
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 23:30
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.22%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.97%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-15 23:30
picklebet_au🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.90%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.75%EV -7.53%E -2.51%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.91%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-15 23:25
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -7.23%E -3.36%K -6.29%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -10.61%E -3.66%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-15 23:54
ReBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.89%EV -8.53%E -4.02%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.28%EV -9.95%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-15 23:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.02%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.30%E -1.75%K -2.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-15 23:30
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -9.39%E -4.47%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.23%E -3.90%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -11.51%E -3.38%K -4.80%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-15 23:37
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.99%EV -11.55%E -5.63%K -11.00%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.47%EV -13.69%E -4.89%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.54%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-15 23:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 43.93%EV -12.41%E -6.11%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.23%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.85%EV -10.21%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-15 23:28
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.46%EV -13.70%E -6.85%K -13.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.14%EV -9.07%E -3.07%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -8.91%E -2.54%K -3.56%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-15 23:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.13I 46.95%NM 41.95%2.94I 34.01%NM 30.39%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.66%11.9%2026-10-16 01:10
Smarkets◎2.06I 48.54%NM 42.74%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.57%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%13.6%2026-10-15 23:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-10-16 00:35