La escuela de los momios

Aston Villa v Lille

Inicio: 2026-03-19 20:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

58 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Aston Villa (Local)

Predicción 55.42%1.80momio equitativo
EV -1.35%
Ventaja -0.758%
Kelly -1.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.64%55.34%55.47%56.82%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.621.701.701.7861.73%58.82%58.82%56.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Lille (Visitante)

Predicción 19.61%5.10momio equitativo
EV +3.96%
Ventaja +0.747%
Kelly +0.920%
Crecimiento +0.036%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.30

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.44%19.64%19.59%21.33%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.404.834.805.3022.73%20.71%20.83%18.87%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.96%4.01momio equitativo
EV -1.40%
Ventaja -0.353%
Kelly -0.473%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.99%25.02%24.94%26.06%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.603.783.803.9527.78%26.46%26.32%25.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.82%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.44%EV +3.96%E +0.747%K +0.920%G +0.036%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -1.40%E -0.353%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-19 19:44
Svenska Spel1.72I 58.14%NM 56.82%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.44%EV +3.96%E +0.747%K +0.920%G +0.036%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -1.40%E -0.353%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-19 19:45
ATG (SE)1.72I 58.14%NM 56.82%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.44%EV +3.96%E +0.747%K +0.920%G +0.036%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -1.40%E -0.353%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-19 19:44
Unibet (NL)1.71I 58.48%NM 56.68%EV -5.23%E -3.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.46%EV +2.98%E +0.567%K +0.701%G +0.021%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.85%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 19:45
1xBet1.74I 57.47%NM 55.77%EV -3.57%E -2.05%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.12I 19.53%NM 18.95%EV +0.427%E +0.083%K +0.104%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.27%EV -4.14%E -1.08%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-19 19:55
LowVig.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.05%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.04%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-19 19:54
BetOnline.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 56.05%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.90%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.04%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-19 19:54
Casumo1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:44
TABtouch1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:45
Unibet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:44
Grosvenor1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:44
BetRivers1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:44
Bally Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:45
betPARX1.66I 60.24%NM 56.74%EV -8.00%E -4.82%K -12.12%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.47%EV +0.035%E +0.007%K +0.009%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:45
Pinnacle1.76I 56.82%NM 55.38%EV -2.46%E -1.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.30%EV -0.946%E -0.187%K -0.233%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.32%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%2.6%2026-03-19 19:35
Fanatics1.69I 59.17%NM 56.09%EV -6.34%E -3.75%K -9.18%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.93%E -0.385%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.95%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 18:54
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 55.18%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -1.93%E -0.385%K -0.482%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-19 19:49
Marathon Bet1.76I 56.82%NM 55.52%EV -2.46%E -1.40%K -3.23%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.74%EV -2.91%E -0.587%K -0.736%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.74%EV -1.40%E -0.353%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.3%2026-03-19 19:50
Coolbet1.75I 57.14%NM 54.94%EV -3.01%E -1.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.42%EV -2.91%E -0.587%K -0.736%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.64%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-19 19:53
BetUS1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.23%E -3.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.24%EV -2.91%E -0.587%K -0.736%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.06%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-19 19:54
ReBet1.73I 57.80%NM 55.66%EV -4.12%E -2.38%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.65%EV -3.89%E -0.793%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.69%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-19 19:09
Codere (IT)1.72I 58.14%NM 55.62%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.53%EV -3.89%E -0.793%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.85%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-19 19:05
DraftKings1.71I 58.48%NM 55.77%EV -5.23%E -3.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.46%EV -3.89%E -0.793%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-19 18:54
Suprabets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.44%EV -5.23%E -3.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.35%EV -3.89%E -0.793%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.21%EV -6.14%E -1.63%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 19:20
Bovada1.69I 59.17%NM 55.69%EV -6.34%E -3.75%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -3.89%E -0.793%K -0.997%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.10%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:53
theScore Bet1.69I 59.17%NM 55.65%EV -6.34%E -3.75%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.59%EV -5.85%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-19 19:40
PMU (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.43%EV -6.89%E -4.10%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.40%EV -5.85%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 19:49
FanDuel1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -8.55%E -5.18%K -13.16%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -5.85%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-19 19:50
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 54.90%EV -6.34%E -3.75%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -5.85%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-19 19:54
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.14%EV -10.22%E -6.31%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.85%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -8.88%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 19:44
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 56.14%EV -10.22%E -6.31%K -16.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.95%EV -5.85%E -1.22%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -8.88%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 19:44
NordicBet1.78I 56.18%NM 54.07%EV -1.35%E -0.758%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.26%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.67%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-19 19:20
Betsson1.78I 56.18%NM 54.07%EV -1.35%E -0.758%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.26%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.67%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-19 19:20
Parions Sport (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 19:54
Betclic (FR)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-19 18:59
BetMGM1.71I 58.48%NM 55.25%EV -5.23%E -3.06%K -7.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-19 19:10
SportsBet1.70I 58.82%NM 55.21%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 19:49
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.44%E -4.46%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.57%EV -6.83%E -1.44%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:50
NetBet (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.39%EV -6.89%E -4.10%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.80%EV -7.81%E -1.66%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-19 19:04
Coral1.73I 57.80%NM 54.60%EV -4.12%E -2.38%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.54%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.86%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 19:09
Ladbrokes (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.42%EV -4.12%E -2.38%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:09
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.68%EV -6.89%E -4.10%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -2.64%E -0.678%K -0.912%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 19:00
Mr Green (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:29
William Hill1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:29
888sport1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:30
888sport (SE)1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.21%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 19:30
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 55.23%EV -8.55%E -5.18%K -13.16%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.81%EV -9.77%E -2.12%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.97%EV -8.88%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-03-19 19:50
Betway1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -4.12%E -2.38%K -5.64%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-19 18:49
Bet Right1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 19:54
Neds1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 19:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.72I 58.14%NM 54.14%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.69%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-19 19:10
Winamax (FR)1.68I 59.52%NM 55.26%EV -6.89%E -4.10%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -3.89%E -1.01%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 19:00
Sky Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -7.44%E -4.46%K -11.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -5.14%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-19 19:50
TAB1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -6.89%E -4.10%K -10.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.85%EV -7.64%E -2.06%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 19:00
BoyleSports1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -5.78%E -3.40%K -8.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -11.73%E -2.61%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -10.13%E -2.81%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-19 18:54
Betr (AU)1.75I 57.14%NM 53.64%EV -3.01%E -1.72%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.33%EV -13.70%E -3.11%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -6.39%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 19:55
PlayUp1.72I 58.14%NM 53.70%EV -4.67%E -2.72%K -6.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -13.70%E -3.11%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -8.88%E -2.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-19 19:54
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.79I 55.87%NM 55.84%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.86%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.30%0.1%2026-03-19 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.98%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22%0.4%2026-03-19 19:55
Matchbook1.78I 56.18%NM 55.98%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.80%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.22%0.4%2026-03-19 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.11%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.74%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-03-19 19:55
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 55.91%5.20I 19.23%NM 19.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.0%2026-03-19 19:55
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.94%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.58%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.48%2.1%2026-03-19 19:30