La escuela de los momios

Aston Villa v Bologna

Inicio: 2026-04-16 19:00 UTC

Final: Aston Villa 4–0 Bologna

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Aston Villa (Local)

Predicción 62.35%1.60momio equitativo
EV -1.49%
Ventaja -0.941%
Kelly -2.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.58

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
59.43%62.27%62.32%64.42%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.441.511.521.5869.44%66.01%66.01%63.29%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Bologna (Visitante)

Predicción 15.57%6.42momio equitativo
EV +2.79%
Ventaja +0.422%
Kelly +0.498%
Crecimiento +0.014%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
14.49%15.57%15.59%19.18%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.905.986.006.6020.41%16.72%16.67%15.15%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 22.08%4.53momio equitativo
EV -0.659%
Ventaja -0.146%
Kelly -0.188%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.01%22.16%22.10%23.36%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.284.304.5025.00%23.34%23.26%22.22%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 63.47%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.81%EV +2.79%E +0.422%K +0.498%G +0.014%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.72%EV -0.659%E -0.146%K -0.188%G +0.000%2.3%2026-04-16 18:55
Pinnacle1.52I 65.79%NM 63.32%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.05%G +0.000%6.46I 15.48%NM 14.90%EV +0.607%E +0.094%K +0.111%G +0.001%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.78%EV -2.42%E -0.549%K -0.709%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-16 18:45
1xBet1.54I 64.94%NM 63.01%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.41I 15.60%NM 15.14%EV -0.172%E -0.027%K -0.032%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.85%EV -1.98%E -0.447%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-16 18:50
Unibet (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.18%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.20%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -0.659%E -0.146%K -0.188%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-16 18:50
ATG (SE)1.54I 64.94%NM 63.18%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.20%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -0.659%E -0.146%K -0.188%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-16 18:50
Svenska Spel1.54I 64.94%NM 63.18%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.20%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.62%EV -0.659%E -0.146%K -0.188%G +0.000%2.8%2026-04-16 18:50
Unibet (NL)1.53I 65.36%NM 63.33%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.14%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.53%EV -0.659%E -0.146%K -0.188%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 18:50
LowVig.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 63.18%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.72%EV -1.76%E -0.396%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 18:45
BetOnline.ag1.53I 65.36%NM 63.18%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.10%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.72%EV -1.76%E -0.396%K -0.511%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 18:45
Betclic (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 63.48%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.88%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.64%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 18:31
Unibet (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.42%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.49%EV -0.328%E -0.051%K -0.061%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.08%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 18:49
Coolbet1.55I 64.52%NM 62.48%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.25%EV -1.11%E -0.174%K -0.207%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.26%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.3%2026-04-16 18:30
Everygame1.50I 66.67%NM 63.03%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.13%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.84%EV -4.41%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 18:25
Casumo1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
Grosvenor1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
Unibet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
TABtouch1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
betPARX1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
Bally Bet1.49I 67.11%NM 63.25%EV -7.10%E -4.76%K -14.49%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -2.66%E -0.426%K -0.507%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.67%EV -3.97%E -0.913%K -1.19%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-16 18:50
Suprabets1.51I 66.23%NM 62.71%EV -5.85%E -3.87%K -11.47%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.27%EV -3.44%E -0.555%K -0.662%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.02%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-16 18:26
ReBet1.54I 64.94%NM 62.40%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -5.00%E -0.820%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-16 18:25
PMU (FR)1.47I 68.03%NM 63.18%EV -8.34%E -5.68%K -17.76%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.22%EV -5.00%E -0.820%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.60%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-16 18:50
NordicBet1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -1.49%E -0.941%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 18:25
Betsson1.58I 63.29%NM 60.99%EV -1.49%E -0.941%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.06%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.95%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-16 18:25
DraftKings1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 18:30
Codere (IT)1.53I 65.36%NM 62.08%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.09%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 18:25
theScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 18:25
Fanatics1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-16 18:55
BetUS1.50I 66.67%NM 62.55%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.64%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-16 18:54
Bovada1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.18%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 18:43
BetRivers1.50I 66.67%NM 62.39%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.60%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -6.18%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-16 18:44
Caesars1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 18:34
SportsBet1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:20
Bet Victor1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:18
Paddy Power1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:20
Betway1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:55
FanDuel1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 18:20
NetBet (FR)1.48I 67.57%NM 62.20%EV -7.72%E -5.22%K -16.09%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.34%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.49%E -2.31%K -3.06%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-16 18:55
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 63.18%EV -10.22%E -7.09%K -23.22%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.16%EV -6.56%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.66%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-16 18:55
William Hill1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -9.67%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-16 18:30
Fliff1.47I 68.03%NM 62.20%EV -8.34%E -5.68%K -17.76%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.76%EV -9.67%E -1.67%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.03%EV -8.39%E -2.02%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:55
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.56%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.99%EV -4.41%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 18:40
BetMGM1.54I 64.94%NM 61.60%EV -3.98%E -2.58%K -7.37%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.50%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.91%EV -4.41%E -1.02%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-16 18:45
888sport1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 18:30
888sport (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 18:30
Mr Green (SE)1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 18:30
LiveScore Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.60%EV -8.97%E -6.14%K -19.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -6.18%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:50
Virgin Bet1.46I 68.49%NM 62.60%EV -8.97%E -6.14%K -19.50%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -10.45%E -1.82%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.50%EV -6.18%E -1.45%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-16 18:50
Winamax (DE)1.50I 66.67%NM 62.16%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.65%EV -12.79%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-16 18:25
Winamax (FR)1.50I 66.67%NM 61.85%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.57%EV -12.79%E -2.28%K -2.78%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.58%EV -5.07%E -1.18%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 18:25
betfred_uk1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -14.34%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -0.659%E -0.146%K -0.188%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 18:50
Neds1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -14.34%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -14.34%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.57%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.07%EV -14.34%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -7.28%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:45
Sky Bet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.97%EV -6.47%E -4.32%K -12.95%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.90%EV -14.34%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:05
TAB1.55I 64.52%NM 59.90%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.88%EV -14.34%E -2.61%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.21%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-16 18:30
Bet Right1.53I 65.36%NM 61.01%EV -4.60%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -18.24%E -3.47%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.21%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-16 18:50
PlayUp1.55I 64.52%NM 59.43%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -18.24%E -3.47%K -4.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -11.70%E -2.92%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Betr (AU)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.47%EV -1.49%E -0.941%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.18%EV -23.69%E -4.83%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -2.87%E -0.651%K -0.843%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 18:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.30%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 63.30%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.61%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-04-16 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.1%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.02%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.99%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.99%1.1%2026-04-16 18:55
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 63.17%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.90%1.5%2026-04-16 18:55
Kalshi1.56I 64.10%NM 62.80%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.53%2.1%2026-04-16 18:25