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Anderlecht v Salzburg

2026-11-05 17:45 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht (Local)

Prediction 50.91%1.96fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.67%50.56%51.02%52.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.821.831.9059.52%54.82%54.64%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Salzburg (Visit)

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV -0.850%
Edge -0.213%
Kelly -0.283%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.89%25.00%24.64%27.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.703.734.0030.77%27.01%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.30%4.12fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.332%
Kelly -0.440%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.38%24.44%24.34%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.473.783.754.0628.82%26.47%26.67%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Anderlecht (Local): 50.91%; Salzburg (Visit): 24.79%; Draw: 24.30%. For Salzburg (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.00, with an expected value of -0.850%; they do not produce positive expected value.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -3.26%E -1.72%K -3.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -7.05%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 15:44
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.60%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.50%EV -1.84%E -0.465%K -0.622%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.90%EV -1.35%E -0.332%K -0.440%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-23 15:40
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 51.23%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.08%EV -0.850%E -0.213%K -0.283%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.69%EV -5.23%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 15:54
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -3.33%E -0.854%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -10.09%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -4.28%E -2.28%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -8.29%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -5.23%E -1.34%K -1.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-23 15:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.43%EV -5.30%E -2.85%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.65%EV -3.82%E -0.986%K -1.33%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.92%EV -2.80%E -0.701%K -0.935%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-23 15:55
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -5.81%E -3.14%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.03%EV -2.09%E -0.529%K -0.708%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -6.45%E -1.68%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-23 15:50
Sky Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.67%EV -5.81%E -3.14%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -19.44%E -5.98%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.20%EV -14.95%E -4.27%K -5.98%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-23 15:30
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.30%EV -6.83%E -3.73%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.57%EV -5.31%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.13%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -6.83%E -3.73%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -3.33%E -0.854%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -10.09%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 15:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.95%EV -6.83%E -3.73%K -8.23%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 26.76%EV -18.70%E -5.70%K -8.20%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.29%EV -15.68%E -4.52%K -6.35%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-23 15:28
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.31%EV -8.36%E -4.64%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -9.53%E -2.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.38%EV -4.02%E -1.02%K -1.36%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 15:45
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.36%E -4.64%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.05%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 15:44
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.36%E -4.64%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.05%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 15:44
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -8.36%E -4.64%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -8.29%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:45
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -8.36%E -4.64%K -10.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -10.77%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 15:44
ReBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 50.82%EV -8.86%E -4.95%K -11.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.92%EV -9.53%E -2.61%K -3.59%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -8.88%E -2.37%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 15:45
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.76%EV -9.88%E -5.58%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.96%EV -10.77%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.28%EV -10.09%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.64%EV -11.41%E -6.56%K -15.42%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.54%EV -14.48%E -4.20%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.82%EV -10.09%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-23 15:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.06%EV -14.47%E -8.61%K -21.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.30%EV -10.77%E -2.99%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.64%EV -10.09%E -2.73%K -3.74%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.82I 54.95%NM 49.96%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.57%3.57I 28.01%NM 25.47%10.0%2026-10-23 15:45
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 50.07%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.33%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.60%16.1%2026-10-23 15:45

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 67.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 32.74%-19.6%2026-10-23 15:54