The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Anderlecht v Lyon

2026-09-16 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa League

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anderlecht (Local)

Prediction 32.48%3.08fair odd
EV +2.30%
Edge +0.730%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.13%32.50%32.48%33.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.832.803.1537.74%35.32%35.71%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lyon (Visit)

Prediction 40.50%2.47fair odd
EV -3.60%
Edge -1.51%
Kelly -2.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.76%40.51%40.50%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.242.252.3847.62%44.74%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.02%3.70fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -0.757%
Kelly -1.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.07%26.99%27.02%27.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.403.353.6030.30%29.39%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Anderlecht (Local): 32.48%; Lyon (Visit): 40.50%; Draw: 27.02%. For Anderlecht (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.08. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.15, producing a positive expected value of +2.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Suprabets🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.13%EV +2.30%E +0.730%K +1.07%G +0.025%2.11I 47.39%NM 43.48%EV -14.54%E -6.89%K -13.10%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.39%EV -9.48%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-30 21:06
1xBet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.91%EV -1.27%E -0.418%K -0.624%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.76%EV -3.60%E -1.51%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.33%EV -4.08%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-30 21:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -4.19%E -1.42%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -4.82%E -2.05%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -5.43%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-30 21:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -5.82%E -2.01%K -3.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -2.73%E -0.757%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-30 21:10
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.44%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.43%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 21:10
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.44%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.43%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-30 21:10
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.66%EV -7.44%E -2.61%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.40%EV -11.70%E -5.37%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.94%EV -9.48%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-30 21:09
ReBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 32.36%EV -8.74%E -3.11%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.41%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.23%EV -9.75%E -2.92%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-30 21:09
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -9.07%E -3.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -5.43%E -1.55%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-30 21:10
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.07%E -3.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.13%E -2.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 21:07
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -9.07%E -3.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -6.84%E -2.97%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -8.13%E -2.39%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-30 21:08
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.43%EV -9.07%E -3.24%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -14.94%E -7.12%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-30 21:09
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 32.08%EV -9.72%E -3.49%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 40.90%EV -11.70%E -5.37%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-30 21:10
TAB🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -8.87%E -3.94%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-30 23:40
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.84%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -10.89%E -4.95%K -9.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-30 21:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.34%EV -12.31%E -4.56%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.59%EV -14.94%E -7.12%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.07%EV -9.48%E -2.83%K -4.03%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-30 21:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.63%EV -13.94%E -5.26%K -8.45%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -14.94%E -7.12%K -13.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -10.83%E -3.28%K -4.71%G +0.000%15.7%2026-08-30 21:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 26.39%2.12I 47.17%NM 36.10%2.04I 49.02%NM 37.51%30.7%2026-08-31 01:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.90I 34.48%NM 26.39%2.12I 47.17%NM 36.10%2.04I 49.02%NM 37.51%30.7%2026-08-31 01:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 34.25%2.12I 47.17%NM 31.67%1.97I 50.76%NM 34.08%49.0%2026-08-30 21:55