The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Trabzonspor v Hearts

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 16:45 UTC

Final: Trabzonspor 2–0 Hearts

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Trabzonspor (Local)

Prediction 71.50%1.40fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -9.92%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.48%71.39%71.46%74.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.301.301.3581.97%76.81%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hearts (Visit)

Prediction 12.36%8.09fair odd
EV +11.87%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.175%

assuming max odds 9.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.47%12.33%12.45%14.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.597.509.0516.67%13.18%13.33%11.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.14%6.20fair odd
EV +0.852%
Edge +0.136%
Kelly +0.162%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.06%16.28%16.09%18.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.615.606.2520.41%17.82%17.86%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Trabzonspor (Local): 71.50%; Hearts (Visit): 12.36%; Draw: 16.14%. For Hearts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.09. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.00%EV -7.76%E -6.02%K -26.76%G +0.000%9.05I 11.05%NM 10.55%EV +11.87%E +1.31%K +1.47%G +0.175%6.18I 16.18%NM 15.45%EV -0.278%E -0.045%K -0.054%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 13:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.00%EV -7.76%E -6.02%K -26.76%G +0.000%9.05I 11.05%NM 10.55%EV +11.87%E +1.31%K +1.47%G +0.175%6.18I 16.18%NM 15.45%EV -0.278%E -0.045%K -0.054%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 13:56
NordicBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.27%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.47%EV +8.78%E +0.997%K +1.13%G +0.099%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:40
Betsson🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.98%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.27%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.47%EV +8.78%E +0.997%K +1.13%G +0.099%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.55%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 72.82%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.27%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +5.07%E +0.596%K +0.676%G +0.034%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -7.22%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-22 15:55
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.53%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.27%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.41%EV +1.98%E +0.240%K +0.273%G +0.005%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.06%EV +0.852%E +0.136%K +0.162%G +0.001%6.2%2026-10-22 16:41
Unibet (NL)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.75%EV -3.47%E -2.57%K -9.92%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.11%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.14%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-22 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.20%EV -5.62%E -4.25%K -17.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.91%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.88%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-22 16:40
Unibet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.55%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.90%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -7.22%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-22 16:30
betfred_uk🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.51%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.78%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 16:40
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.76%E -6.02%K -26.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.22%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-22 16:35
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.17%EV -7.76%E -6.02%K -26.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.64%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.19%EV -7.22%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-22 16:35
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.97%EV -9.19%E -7.24%K -34.04%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 16:40
PlayUp🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.92%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.52%EV -1.11%E -0.139%K -0.159%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.56%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:40
Pinnacle🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.94%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.03%EV -1.73%E -0.218%K -0.249%G +0.000%5.97I 16.75%NM 16.03%EV -3.67%E -0.614%K -0.738%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-22 16:40
ReBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 72.13%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 12.14%EV -2.35%E -0.297%K -0.340%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.73%EV -1.57%E -0.257%K -0.308%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 16:35
1xBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.04%EV -5.62%E -4.25%K -17.55%G +0.000%7.58I 13.19%NM 12.55%EV -6.30%E -0.832%K -0.958%G +0.000%6.17I 16.21%NM 15.41%EV -0.439%E -0.071%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:38
Coolbet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 71.17%EV -3.47%E -2.57%K -9.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.81%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.01%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 15:40
picklebet_au🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.48%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.68%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.84%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.99%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.22%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-22 16:30
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.94%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.47%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV -3.18%E -0.530%K -0.636%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-22 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.99%EV -6.33%E -4.83%K -20.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -9.64%E -1.72%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 16:21
LeoVegas🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.99%EV -6.33%E -4.83%K -20.42%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.61%EV -9.64%E -1.72%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 16:35
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.32%E -3.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:16
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.32%E -3.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.32%E -3.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:15
William Hill🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.32%E -3.86%K -4.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:16
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.23%EV -12.77%E -10.46%K -58.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.75%EV -7.29%E -0.972%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.02%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-22 16:40
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.94%EV -4.90%E -3.69%K -14.85%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.83%EV -10.38%E -1.43%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.23%EV -12.86%E -2.38%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 16:39
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.16%EV -6.33%E -4.83%K -20.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.71%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 16:40
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 16:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 16:41
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 16:40
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 16:40
theScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.15%EV -8.48%E -6.62%K -30.27%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.01%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.84%EV -7.22%E -1.26%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-22 16:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-22 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-22 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.05%E -5.42%K -23.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-22 16:30
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.59%EV -10.62%E -8.50%K -42.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.61%EV -13.47%E -1.92%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.81%EV -15.28%E -2.91%K -3.60%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-22 16:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 70.63%EV -9.91%E -7.86%K -38.10%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.18%EV -16.56%E -2.45%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.18%EV -11.25%E -2.05%K -2.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-22 16:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 68.48%EV -9.91%E -7.86%K -38.10%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 13.92%EV -23.36%E -3.77%K -4.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.61%EV -20.93%E -4.27%K -5.37%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-22 16:36
Betclic (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.19%EV -7.76%E -6.02%K -26.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.88%EV -25.83%E -4.31%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.94%EV -9.64%E -1.72%K -2.09%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-22 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.62%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.59%0.8%2026-10-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.62%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.59%0.8%2026-10-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.62%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.59%0.8%2026-10-22 16:41
Matchbook◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.62%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.79%6.80I 14.71%NM 14.59%0.8%2026-10-22 16:40