The School of Odds
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Strasbourg v HNK Rijeka

Kickoff: 2026-03-19 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Strasbourg (Local)

Prediction 67.93%1.47fair odd
EV -2.18%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -4.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.87%67.80%67.95%70.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.381.381.4475.76%72.41%72.46%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HNK Rijeka (Visit)

Prediction 12.52%7.99fair odd
EV +12.64%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.58%
Growth +0.200%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.52%12.59%12.45%14.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.417.209.0015.38%13.49%13.89%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.56%5.11fair odd
EV -2.22%
Edge -0.443%
Kelly -0.554%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.72%19.60%19.60%21.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.724.775.0023.09%21.17%20.96%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Strasbourg (Local): 67.93%; HNK Rijeka (Visit): 12.52%; Draw: 19.56%. For HNK Rijeka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.99. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.27%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.62%EV +12.64%E +1.40%K +1.58%G +0.200%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.11%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 19:09
Unibet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.15%EV -8.30%E -6.15%K -23.71%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV +12.64%E +1.40%K +1.58%G +0.200%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.33%EV -4.17%E -0.851%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-19 19:09
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -10.34%E -7.83%K -32.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +6.39%E +0.751%K +0.851%G +0.054%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-19 19:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -10.34%E -7.83%K -32.30%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV +6.39%E +0.751%K +0.851%G +0.054%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-19 19:09
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.27%EV -4.22%E -2.99%K -10.30%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.88%EV +1.38%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.85%EV -5.15%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-19 08:00
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.27%EV -4.22%E -2.99%K -10.30%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.88%EV +1.38%E +0.170%K +0.194%G +0.003%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.85%EV -5.15%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-19 07:59
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.67%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.67%EV +0.128%E +0.016%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -7.10%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 19:54
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -4.90%E -3.50%K -12.26%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 12.09%EV -0.498%E -0.063%K -0.072%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.23%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-19 16:59
Pinnacle🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.54%E -2.50%K -8.44%G +0.000%7.86I 12.72%NM 12.26%EV -1.62%E -0.207%K -0.237%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.87%EV -5.15%E -1.06%K -1.34%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-19 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.62%EV -5.58%E -4.02%K -14.31%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.31%EV -3.00%E -0.387%K -0.445%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.08%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-19 15:55
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.45%EV -4.22%E -2.99%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.54I 13.26%NM 12.61%EV -5.63%E -0.747%K -0.861%G +0.000%4.77I 20.96%NM 19.94%EV -6.71%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-19 19:54
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.76%EV -4.22%E -2.99%K -10.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.74%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.50%EV -4.17%E -0.851%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 19:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.64%EV -4.90%E -3.50%K -12.26%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.63%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-19 15:30
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.26%E -4.54%K -16.48%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.90%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-19 11:09
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.39%EV -6.94%E -5.07%K -18.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.12%EV -4.17%E -0.851%K -1.07%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-19 15:29
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.48%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 19:30
NetBet (FR)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.12%EV -6.94%E -5.07%K -18.76%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.44%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.44%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-19 19:55
FanDuel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -6.13%E -0.817%K -0.943%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-19 19:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.17%EV -5.58%E -4.02%K -14.31%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.97%EV -9.88%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.86%EV -8.08%E -1.72%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 19:54
Fliff🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.67%EV -8.30%E -6.15%K -23.71%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.69%EV -9.88%E -1.37%K -1.59%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.65%EV -9.06%E -1.95%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-19 19:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -4.90%E -3.50%K -12.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -2.22%E -0.443%K -0.554%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 17:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -4.90%E -3.50%K -12.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -6.13%E -1.28%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-19 17:35
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.90%E -3.50%K -12.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.10%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -4.90%E -3.50%K -12.26%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -7.10%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 17:34
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.65%EV -6.26%E -4.54%K -16.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.21%EV -11.02%E -2.42%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-19 19:53
SportsBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.12%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.84%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-19 19:55
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -11.99%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 19:30
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -11.99%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 19:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -11.99%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 19:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -11.99%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-19 19:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.15%EV -8.98%E -6.70%K -26.40%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -12.39%E -1.77%K -2.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.00%EV -11.99%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-19 19:55
NordicBet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -2.86%E -2.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -13.64%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -12.97%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 19:44
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.42%EV -2.86%E -2.00%K -6.66%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.56%EV -13.64%E -1.98%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.02%EV -12.97%E -2.92%K -3.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-19 19:44
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.07%EV -3.54%E -2.50%K -8.44%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.69%EV -15.52%E -2.30%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.24%EV -14.93%E -3.43%K -4.46%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-19 19:44
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.87%EV -2.18%E -1.52%K -4.97%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.37%EV -18.65%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.76%EV -11.99%E -2.67%K -3.43%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-19 19:45
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -18.65%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -10.04%E -2.18%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-19 17:34
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.65%EV -7.62%E -5.60%K -21.16%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.74%EV -18.65%E -2.87%K -3.39%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.62%EV -15.32%E -3.54%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.0%2026-03-19 19:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.44%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.46%0.8%2026-03-19 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.44%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.46%0.8%2026-03-19 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 68.44%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.10%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.46%0.8%2026-03-19 19:55