L’École des cotes

Strasbourg v FSV Mainz 05

Coup d’envoi : 2026-04-16 19:00 UTC

Score final : Strasbourg 4–0 FSV Mainz 05

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

37 opérateurs (14 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Strasbourg (Local)

Prévision 49.49%2.02cote équitable
EV -2.51%
Avantage -1.28%
Kelly -2.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.97

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
47.89%49.54%49.42%51.68%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.811.891.901.9755.25%52.81%52.63%50.76%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

FSV Mainz 05 (Visiteur)

Prévision 24.90%4.02cote équitable
EV +2.09%
Avantage +0.511%
Kelly +0.676%
Croissance +0.014%

avec la cote maximale 4.10

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.57%24.95%24.84%27.69%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.403.753.754.1029.41%26.63%26.67%24.39%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Match nul

Prévision 25.61%3.90cote équitable
EV +2.46%
Avantage +0.614%
Kelly +0.818%
Croissance +0.020%

avec la cote maximale 4.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
23.53%25.52%25.74%26.28%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.503.683.704.0028.57%27.16%27.03%25.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (37 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nul ▼MargeMise à jour
Unibet (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.78%EV -4.49%E -2.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV +2.46%E +0.614%K +0.818%G +0.020%6.2%2026-04-16 18:50
LowVig.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -7.46%E -3.99%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.86%EV +0.850%E +0.210%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV +1.17%E +0.297%K +0.398%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-16 18:40
BetOnline.ag1.87I 53.48%NM 51.68%EV -7.46%E -3.99%K -8.58%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.86%EV +0.850%E +0.210%K +0.279%G +0.002%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.46%EV +1.17%E +0.297%K +0.398%G +0.005%3.5%2026-04-16 18:40
Marathon Bet1.93I 51.81%NM 50.19%EV -4.49%E -2.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.71%EV -2.39%E -0.609%K -0.818%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.10%EV -1.13%E -0.293%K -0.395%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 18:55
1xBet1.93I 51.81%NM 49.24%EV -4.49%E -2.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.82%EV -8.36%E -2.27%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.94%EV -2.41%E -0.633%K -0.858%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-16 18:55
Coolbet1.94I 51.55%NM 49.80%EV -4.00%E -2.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.77%EV -2.89%E -0.740%K -0.995%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.43%EV -2.67%E -0.702%K -0.953%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 18:45
Pinnacle1.97I 50.76%NM 49.03%EV -2.51%E -1.28%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.42%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.55%EV -3.18%E -0.841%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 18:45
Betclic (FR)1.93I 51.81%NM 48.68%EV -4.49%E -2.33%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -11.60%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.85%EV -3.18%E -0.841%K -1.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 18:44
ReBet1.95I 51.28%NM 49.35%EV -3.50%E -1.80%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.66%EV -3.95%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-16 18:45
betfred_uk1.95I 51.28%NM 48.14%EV -3.50%E -1.80%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.03%EV -3.95%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-16 18:49
Bet Right1.94I 51.55%NM 47.89%EV -4.00%E -2.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -15.34%E -4.51%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -3.95%E -1.05%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-16 18:55
Unibet (NL)1.92I 52.08%NM 50.32%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.57%EV +2.09%E +0.511%K +0.676%G +0.014%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-16 18:55
DraftKings1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -3.50%E -1.80%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.15%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-16 18:45
NordicBet1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -1.64%E -0.415%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 18:55
Betsson1.90I 52.63%NM 50.14%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.12%EV -1.64%E -0.415%K -0.556%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-16 18:55
Suprabets1.94I 51.55%NM 48.88%EV -4.00%E -2.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.49%EV -7.37%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.63%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-16 18:42
Coral1.91I 52.36%NM 49.53%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.57%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)1.91I 52.36%NM 49.37%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.49%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 18:54
Ladbrokes (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Neds1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -5.98%E -3.15%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Bet Victor1.85I 54.05%NM 50.33%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.50%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.17%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-16 18:55
SportsBet1.86I 53.76%NM 50.03%EV -7.96%E -4.28%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.15%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-16 18:45
FanDuel1.83I 54.64%NM 50.60%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -5.23%E -1.41%K -1.94%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 18:45
PlayUp1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.66%EV -6.62%E -1.77%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.34%EV -6.51%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-16 18:55
Bovada1.88I 53.19%NM 49.08%EV -6.97%E -3.71%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.63%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.28%EV -6.51%E -1.78%K -2.46%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-16 18:46
Unibet1.89I 52.91%NM 50.06%EV -6.47%E -3.42%K -7.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -0.396%E -0.099%K -0.132%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -7.79%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Fanatics1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -5.38%E -1.41%K -1.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -7.79%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-16 18:40
theScore Bet1.91I 52.36%NM 48.86%EV -5.48%E -2.87%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.79%E -2.16%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-16 18:45
NetBet (FR)1.92I 52.08%NM 48.04%EV -4.99%E -2.60%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -11.60%E -3.27%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.98%EV -9.07%E -2.56%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-16 18:50
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-16 18:55
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-16 18:55
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-16 18:55
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -8.45%E -4.57%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.87%E -2.13%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-16 18:54
LiveScore Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.32%EV -10.43%E -5.76%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 18:55
Virgin Bet1.81I 55.25%NM 50.32%EV -10.43%E -5.76%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.66%EV -4.13%E -1.07%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 18:55
BetMGM1.87I 53.48%NM 48.69%EV -7.46%E -3.99%K -8.58%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.29%EV -10.36%E -2.88%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 18:55
Sky Bet1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -9.44%E -5.16%K -11.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -12.85%E -3.67%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -10.35%E -2.96%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-16 18:45
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (3)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMatch nulMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%0.5%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.87%0.5%2026-04-16 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-04-16 18:50