The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SC Braga v Gent

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 19:00 UTC

Final: SC Braga 2–0 Gent

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Braga (Local)

Prediction 51.52%1.94fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.97%51.35%51.74%53.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.801.801.9058.82%55.55%55.56%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gent (Visit)

Prediction 21.48%4.66fair odd
EV +3.10%
Edge +0.646%
Kelly +0.816%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.22%21.70%21.22%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.294.204.8027.03%23.31%23.81%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV +1.27%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.460%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.35%26.95%27.04%28.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.453.7531.25%29.08%28.99%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Braga (Local): 51.52%; Gent (Visit): 21.48%; Draw: 27.00%. For Gent (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.91%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.22%EV +3.10%E +0.646%K +0.816%G +0.025%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.88%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.460%G +0.006%3.1%2026-10-22 18:55
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.72%EV -8.82%E -4.98%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.23%EV +0.952%E +0.203%K +0.257%G +0.002%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.05%EV -1.43%E -0.393%K -0.541%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 18:55
Bovada🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.24%EV -9.33%E -5.30%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.37%EV -1.20%E -0.260%K -0.332%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.39%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 18:54
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.80%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 20.97%EV -1.84%E -0.403%K -0.516%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.23%EV -4.94%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.62%EV -4.18%E -2.25%K -4.86%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.10%EV -2.27%E -0.499%K -0.639%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.94%E -1.40%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.02%EV -5.72%E -3.13%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.34%E -0.743%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.82%EV -4.13%E -1.16%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 18:55
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.83%EV -5.72%E -3.13%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -3.34%E -0.743%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.10%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 18:55
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -3.34%E -0.743%K -0.955%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -2.78%E -0.773%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 18:40
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.89%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.30%EV -1.43%E -0.393%K -0.541%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 18:55
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.24%EV -5.21%E -2.83%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 18:55
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.27%EV -8.30%E -4.66%K -10.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.01%EV -8.82%E -4.98%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -5.49%E -1.25%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.80%EV -11.39%E -6.62%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -6.57%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-22 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.80%EV -11.39%E -6.62%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -6.57%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-22 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.80%EV -11.39%E -6.62%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -6.57%E -1.51%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-22 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.38%EV -3.15%E -1.67%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.55%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 18:55
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.84%E -1.98%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 18:55
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:55
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -4.69%E -2.54%K -5.52%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:55
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.89%EV -8.82%E -4.98%K -11.45%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.87%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -5.48%E -1.57%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.66%EV -7.27%E -4.04%K -9.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -9.85%E -5.63%K -13.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.89%E -3.30%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-22 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.50%EV -12.42%E -7.31%K -17.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.25%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-22 18:55
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.43%EV -10.88%E -6.29%K -14.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -9.79%E -2.33%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -12.24%E -3.76%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-22 18:30
PlayUp🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -5.72%E -3.13%K -6.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.94%E -2.91%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -8.19%E -2.41%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-22 18:55
1xBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.03%EV -2.12%E -1.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.63%EV -17.09%E -4.43%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.35%EV +1.27%E +0.338%K +0.460%G +0.006%5.2%2026-10-22 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.25%EV -11.39%E -6.62%K -15.82%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -18.38%E -4.84%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -13.59%E -4.25%K -6.18%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.15%EV -8.30%E -4.66%K -10.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.13%EV -20.53%E -5.55%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.72%EV -6.29%E -1.81%K -2.55%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-22 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.56%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.17%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.26%0.5%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.69%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.12%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.19%0.8%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.50%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.50%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.47%1.1%2026-10-22 18:55