The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pafos FC v Riga FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 16:45 UTC

Final: Pafos FC 1–1 Riga FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pafos FC (Local)

Prediction 48.76%2.05fair odd
EV -2.47%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.09%48.82%48.75%51.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.901.922.0056.50%52.65%52.22%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Riga FC (Visit)

Prediction 25.12%3.98fair odd
EV +4.77%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.50%
Growth +0.072%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.97%25.06%25.10%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.323.733.734.1730.12%26.83%26.85%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.11%3.83fair odd
EV -2.08%
Edge -0.554%
Kelly -0.755%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%26.12%26.14%27.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.603.7530.30%28.10%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pafos FC (Local): 48.76%; Riga FC (Visit): 25.12%; Draw: 26.11%. For Riga FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.98. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.77%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.49%EV -9.30%E -5.00%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.97%EV +4.77%E +1.14%K +1.50%G +0.072%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%EV -2.08%E -0.554%K -0.755%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 16:35
Unibet (NL)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -10.76%E -5.88%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV +3.01%E +0.733%K +0.970%G +0.029%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -2.08%E -0.554%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 16:35
Unibet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.70%EV -10.76%E -5.88%K -12.97%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.07%EV +3.01%E +0.733%K +0.970%G +0.029%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.23%EV -2.08%E -0.554%K -0.755%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 16:36
SportsBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.37%EV -6.37%E -3.32%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -2.02%E -0.517%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 16:35
FanDuel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.50%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -2.02%E -0.517%K -0.696%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.26%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 16:36
Marathon Bet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.03%EV -9.30%E -5.00%K -10.81%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.98%EV -2.52%E -0.650%K -0.875%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.99%EV -6.52%E -1.82%K -2.53%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 16:30
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.48%EV -3.45%E -1.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.93%EV -3.27%E -0.850%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.59%EV -5.73%E -1.59%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.25%EV -13.69%E -7.73%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -3.27%E -0.850%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-22 16:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.25%EV -13.69%E -7.73%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -3.27%E -0.850%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-22 16:36
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.25%EV -13.69%E -7.73%K -17.78%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.56%EV -3.27%E -0.850%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.20%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-22 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.27%EV -5.89%E -3.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -4.53%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.38%E -0.914%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:36
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.27%EV -5.89%E -3.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.03%EV -4.53%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -3.38%E -0.914%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 16:36
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.53%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 16:30
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -12.23%E -6.79%K -15.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -4.53%E -1.19%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-22 16:24
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.90%EV -5.40%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.03%EV -4.78%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.06%EV -4.95%E -1.36%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 16:35
ReBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.05%EV -2.47%E -1.24%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.63%EV -5.79%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -4.69%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-22 16:35
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -5.79%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -4.69%E -1.28%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:36
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.79%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 16:40
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.50%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.79%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.08%EV -9.79%E -5.29%K -11.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -5.79%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.71%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-22 16:36
picklebet_au🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -5.40%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 16:30
Neds🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.47%EV -5.40%E -2.78%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 16:30
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.98%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.73%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-22 16:39
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.37%E -3.32%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 16:30
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.18%EV -6.37%E -3.32%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.00%EV -7.04%E -1.90%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.38%EV -6.37%E -3.32%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.45%EV -8.30%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.30%E -2.06%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:40
PlayUp🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.07%EV -5.89%E -3.05%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.42%EV -8.30%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-22 16:36
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.91%E -2.52%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -5.99%E -1.66%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 16:34
theScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-22 16:35
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.79%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.85%EV -11.22%E -3.30%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 16:29
NetBet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.46%EV -12.23%E -6.79%K -15.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -9.55%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.81%EV -9.91%E -2.87%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-22 16:35
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.09%EV -3.45%E -1.74%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -10.81%E -3.05%K -4.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-22 16:35
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 16:36
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 16:36
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 16:36
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -6.86%E -3.59%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -12.07%E -3.45%K -4.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -8.60%E -2.46%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-22 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.47%EV -13.20%E -7.42%K -16.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.38%EV -14.58%E -4.29%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.15%EV -13.83%E -4.19%K -6.01%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-22 16:36
Betclic (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.47%EV -8.32%E -4.43%K -9.46%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.88%EV -16.59%E -5.00%K -7.15%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.65%EV -9.13%E -2.62%K -3.68%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-22 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%0.7%2026-10-22 16:36
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%0.7%2026-10-22 16:36
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%0.7%2026-10-22 16:36
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13%0.7%2026-10-22 16:30