The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Getafe v FC Lugano

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 16:45 UTC

Final: Getafe 2–5 FC Lugano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Getafe (Local)

Prediction 42.77%2.34fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.31%42.82%42.66%45.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.202.2750.00%46.14%45.45%44.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Lugano (Visit)

Prediction 27.37%3.65fair odd
EV +2.64%
Edge +0.703%
Kelly +0.959%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.27%27.31%27.47%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.393.353.7533.33%29.48%29.85%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.86%3.35fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -0.910%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.87%29.87%30.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.123.113.2534.48%32.00%32.15%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Getafe (Local): 42.77%; FC Lugano (Visit): 27.37%; Draw: 29.86%. For FC Lugano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.57%EV -11.04%E -5.31%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV +2.64%E +0.703%K +0.959%G +0.025%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -2.96%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 16:40
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.57%EV -11.04%E -5.31%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.27%EV +2.64%E +0.703%K +0.959%G +0.025%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -2.96%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 16:40
Coolbet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -4.62%E -2.07%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.62%EV -1.47%E -0.408%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.42%EV -5.94%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 16:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.69%EV -6.76%E -3.10%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -1.47%E -0.408%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.86%EV -4.75%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 16:21
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.69%EV -6.76%E -3.10%K -5.73%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.46%EV -1.47%E -0.408%K -0.565%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.86%EV -4.75%E -1.49%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -14.46%E -7.23%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -2.84%E -0.799%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-22 16:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -14.46%E -7.23%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -2.84%E -0.799%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-22 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.28%EV -14.46%E -7.23%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.51%EV -2.84%E -0.799%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-22 16:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.83%EV -9.32%E -4.40%K -8.33%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.40%EV -3.66%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.78%EV -6.84%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:01
ReBet🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.60%EV -3.34%E -1.48%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.51%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.90%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-22 16:25
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 43.37%EV -6.33%E -2.89%K -5.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.21%E -1.20%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.50%EV -3.85%E -1.20%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-22 16:38
Pinnacle🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 42.38%EV -2.91%E -1.28%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.56%EV -4.48%E -1.28%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.06%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 16:40
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.69%EV -5.57%E -1.62%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.85%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 16:40
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.03%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.96%E -0.910%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-22 16:20
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 16:41
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 16:10
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.83%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.45%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-22 16:10
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-22 16:40
Bet Victor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.08%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -6.94%E -2.04%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.68%EV -6.84%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 16:40
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.01%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.27%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 16:39
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.62%EV -5.05%E -2.27%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -10.42%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 16:40
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.62%EV -5.05%E -2.27%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.80%EV -10.42%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.60%EV -14.46%E -7.23%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -8.31%E -2.48%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 16:16
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 16:21
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 16:25
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.48%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -4.45%E -1.39%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-22 16:36
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.28%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -5.94%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 16:41
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.16%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.11%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.73%EV -6.84%E -2.19%K -3.23%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-22 16:40
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 16:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-22 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-22 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-22 16:40
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-22 16:10
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -7.44%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-22 16:40
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.36%EV -10.18%E -4.85%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.68%EV -13.41%E -4.62%K -7.06%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-22 16:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.39%EV -12.32%E -6.01%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.96%EV -9.68%E -2.93%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.65%EV -10.42%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-22 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.94%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-22 16:21
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.55%EV -3.76%E -1.67%K -3.01%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -5.94%E -1.89%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-22 16:20
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.04%E -3.74%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -11.05%E -3.40%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.42%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-22 16:40
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -5.90%E -2.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -12.42%E -3.88%K -5.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -10.42%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 16:21
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.25%EV -12.32%E -6.01%K -11.73%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -17.89%E -5.96%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.87%EV -10.42%E -3.47%K -5.21%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-22 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.35%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.15%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-10-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-10-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.99%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.49%0.9%2026-10-22 16:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.60%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.45%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.95%1.2%2026-10-22 16:40