The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

FC Thun v Hajduk Split

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 19:00 UTC

Final: FC Thun 0–1 Hajduk Split

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Thun (Local)

Prediction 32.17%3.11fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.728%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.22%32.31%32.23%34.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.892.903.0437.74%34.56%34.48%32.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hajduk Split (Visit)

Prediction 42.78%2.34fair odd
EV -1.60%
Edge -0.694%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.17%42.70%42.69%43.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.172.152.3048.78%46.04%46.51%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.05%3.99fair odd
EV +0.194%
Edge +0.048%
Kelly +0.065%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.77%24.99%25.08%26.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.703.704.0030.30%27.03%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Thun (Local): 32.17%; Hajduk Split (Visit): 42.78%; Draw: 25.05%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.194%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.01%EV -7.36%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.22%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV +0.194%E +0.048%K +0.065%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 18:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -5.11%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.31%E -0.593%K -0.797%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -5.11%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.29%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.31%E -0.593%K -0.797%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.16%EV -11.54%E -4.20%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.75%EV -3.73%E -1.66%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -2.31%E -0.593%K -0.797%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 18:36
ReBet🎯2.99I 33.44%NM 32.20%EV -3.82%E -1.28%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.79%EV -3.73%E -1.66%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.01%EV -3.56%E -0.926%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-22 18:40
Coolbet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.07%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.95%EV -4.16%E -1.86%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.99%EV -3.56%E -0.926%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 18:50
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.37%EV -3.73%E -1.66%K -2.99%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -3.56%E -0.926%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Pinnacle🎯2.93I 34.13%NM 32.86%EV -5.75%E -1.96%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.86%EV -1.60%E -0.694%K -1.23%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.27%EV -4.57%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.78%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.77%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 18:55
Bet Right🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.23%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 18:15
betano_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -7.36%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.25%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 18:49
Bet Victor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -7.36%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.25%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -4.82%E -1.27%K -1.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 18:48
1xBet🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -2.21%E -0.728%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.74%EV -7.16%E -3.30%K -6.12%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.04%EV -5.07%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-22 18:47
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.61%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.10%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.29%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 18:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 18:15
Neds🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.30%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.67%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.04%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 18:10
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.35%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.64%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.01%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 18:35
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -6.07%E -1.62%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -5.11%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.40%EV -4.59%E -2.06%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 18:47
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -5.11%E -1.73%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.40%EV -4.59%E -2.06%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 18:47
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 18:55
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -3.50%E -1.17%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 18:55
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.87%E -2.67%K -4.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 18:55
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -7.32%E -1.98%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-22 18:47
Marathon Bet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.44%EV -4.79%E -1.62%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.28%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.29%EV -7.82%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.67%EV -14.76%E -5.57%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.09%EV -9.30%E -4.39%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.25%EV -7.82%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-22 18:33
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.52%EV -8.32%E -2.92%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 41.74%EV -5.02%E -2.26%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Betsson🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:35
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:15
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:35
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.72%E -2.32%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -8.01%E -3.73%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:20
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.53%EV -7.36%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.83%E -2.73%K -3.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-22 18:16
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.25%EV -8.44%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-22 18:47
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.25%EV -8.44%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-22 18:47
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.29%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.25%EV -8.44%E -3.94%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.47%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-22 18:47
NetBet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.42%EV -11.54%E -4.20%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.46%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -11.08%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-22 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -7.36%E -2.56%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -12.33%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.59%EV -9.93%E -3.55%K -5.52%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.14%EV -12.29%E -6.00%K -11.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -12.33%E -3.52%K -4.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-22 18:30
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.63%EV -14.76%E -5.57%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -10.15%E -4.83%K -9.23%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -17.34%E -5.25%K -7.54%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-22 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.58%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.24%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-10-22 18:55
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 31.92%2.30I 43.48%NM 43.03%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%1.1%2026-10-22 18:55