The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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FC Nordsjaelland v PFC CSKA Sofia

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 16:45 UTC

Final: FC Nordsjaelland 2–2 PFC CSKA Sofia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Nordsjaelland (Local)

Prediction 67.57%1.48fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -9.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.00%67.46%67.54%69.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.63%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PFC CSKA Sofia (Visit)

Prediction 13.31%7.51fair odd
EV +6.49%
Edge +0.811%
Kelly +0.927%
Growth +0.060%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.02%13.46%13.31%16.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.987.008.0018.18%14.33%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.12%5.23fair odd
EV +1.32%
Edge +0.250%
Kelly +0.308%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.07%19.08%19.16%20.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.844.805.3023.81%20.66%20.83%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Nordsjaelland (Local): 67.57%; PFC CSKA Sofia (Visit): 13.31%; Draw: 19.12%. For PFC CSKA Sofia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.51. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.79%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.04%EV +6.49%E +0.811%K +0.927%G +0.060%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.17%EV +1.32%E +0.250%K +0.308%G +0.004%3.8%2026-10-22 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.67%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.02%EV +6.49%E +0.811%K +0.927%G +0.060%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.31%EV +0.369%E +0.070%K +0.087%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 16:15
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.21%EV -6.08%E -4.37%K -15.58%G +0.000%7.67I 13.04%NM 12.36%EV +2.09%E +0.273%K +0.314%G +0.007%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.43%EV -6.70%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 16:38
DraftKings🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.79%EV -0.169%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.18%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-22 16:25
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.73%EV -0.169%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 16:15
Unibet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.90%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -0.169%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV -2.50%E -0.490%K -0.609%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-22 16:30
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.55%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.43%EV -0.169%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.02%EV -6.32%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-22 16:16
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -0.169%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 16:40
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.27%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -0.169%E -0.022%K -0.026%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.34%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 16:14
Pinnacle🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 67.84%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%7.43I 13.46%NM 12.87%EV -1.10%E -0.148%K -0.171%G +0.000%4.96I 20.16%NM 19.29%EV -5.18%E -1.04%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-22 16:40
NordicBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.04%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.68%EV -2.83%E -0.388%K -0.449%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.28%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 16:15
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.04%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.68%EV -2.83%E -0.388%K -0.449%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.28%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 16:15
SportsBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.45%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.03%EV -3.50%E -0.482%K -0.559%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.52%EV -2.50%E -0.490%K -0.609%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-22 16:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.26%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 04:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 67.26%EV -4.05%E -2.85%K -9.64%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.64%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.10%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 04:39
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 14:02
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 14:01
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.04%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.41%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.55%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 16:30
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.88%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.74%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 16:16
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 14:01
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.90%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.72%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 14:01
PlayUp🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.81%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.01%EV -7.28%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-22 16:15
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.77%EV -9.45%E -7.06%K -27.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.16%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -2.50%E -0.490%K -0.609%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 16:36
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.86%EV -9.45%E -7.06%K -27.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.86%EV -9.45%E -7.06%K -27.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.86%EV -9.45%E -7.06%K -27.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.99%EV -6.82%E -0.975%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 16:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.47%EV -8.16%E -1.18%K -1.38%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.17%EV -7.28%E -1.50%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 16:05
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.55%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -10.15%E -1.50%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-22 16:41
NetBet (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.29%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.70%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.26%EV -10.15%E -1.50%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.45%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-22 16:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-22 16:16
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 16:16
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 16:16
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 16:15
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.80%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.03%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-22 16:16
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.45%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.90%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.65%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-22 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -13.48%E -2.07%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.86%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 16:36
Sky Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.58%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.17%EV -16.81%E -2.69%K -3.20%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -12.06%E -2.62%K -3.35%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-22 16:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 64.00%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.43%EV -25.46%E -4.55%K -5.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.57%EV -19.70%E -4.69%K -6.16%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-22 16:36
Betclic (FR)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.87%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.28%EV -26.79%E -4.87%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.85%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-22 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%0.9%2026-10-22 16:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%0.9%2026-10-22 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%0.9%2026-10-22 16:40
Matchbook◎1.43I 69.93%NM 69.27%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.34%0.9%2026-10-22 16:40