Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano v FK Kauno Žalgiris

2026-11-05 20:00 UTC — UEFA Europa Conference League

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Lugano (Local)

Prediction 75.91%1.32fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -4.74%
Kelly -24.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.40%75.84%76.04%77.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.211.2486.21%82.52%82.64%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit)

Prediction 7.88%12.69fair odd
EV +2.45%
Edge +0.189%
Kelly +0.204%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.14%7.91%7.90%10.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5011.1111.0013.0011.76%9.00%9.09%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.21%6.17fair odd
EV +5.22%
Edge +0.804%
Kelly +0.950%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 6.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.84%16.25%16.06%17.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.665.606.4920.00%17.67%17.86%15.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: FC Lugano (Local): 75.91%; FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit): 7.88%; Draw: 16.21%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.17. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.49, producing a positive expected value of +5.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.69%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.48%G +0.000%12.90I 7.75%NM 7.47%EV +1.66%E +0.129%K +0.140%G +0.002%6.49I 15.41%NM 14.84%EV +5.22%E +0.804%K +0.950%G +0.050%3.8%2026-10-26 16:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -13.31%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.73%E -0.454%K -0.545%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-26 16:45
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.79%EV -5.88%E -4.74%K -24.48%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -13.31%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -2.73%E -0.454%K -0.545%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-26 16:45
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -8.91%E -7.43%K -44.56%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -2.73%E -0.454%K -0.545%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-26 16:49
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.89%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.61%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.22%EV +2.45%E +0.189%K +0.204%G +0.005%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.90%EV -4.35%E -0.737%K -0.887%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-26 16:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.30%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.61%G +0.000%11.75I 8.51%NM 7.92%EV -7.40%E -0.630%K -0.688%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.78%EV -4.35%E -0.737%K -0.887%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-26 17:20
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -8.91%E -7.43%K -44.56%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV -1.49%E -0.119%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -7.59%E -1.33%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-26 16:45
Betsson🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.54%EV -8.91%E -7.43%K -44.56%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.35%EV -1.49%E -0.119%K -0.129%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.11%EV -7.59%E -1.33%K -1.61%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-26 16:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.79%EV -8.15%E -6.74%K -38.82%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV -21.19%E -2.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -9.21%E -1.64%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-26 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.79%EV -8.15%E -6.74%K -38.82%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV -21.19%E -2.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -9.21%E -1.64%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-26 16:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.79%EV -8.15%E -6.74%K -38.82%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.05%EV -21.19%E -2.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.16%EV -9.21%E -1.64%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-26 16:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.88%EV -6.63%E -5.39%K -28.85%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -13.31%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -10.83%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-26 16:45
picklebet_au🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.03%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.61%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.32%EV -13.31%E -1.21%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -10.83%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-26 16:44
ReBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.63%EV -7.39%E -6.06%K -33.61%G +0.000%10.70I 9.35%NM 8.51%EV -15.67%E -1.46%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.86%EV -12.45%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-26 16:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 74.68%EV -11.95%E -10.30%K -74.68%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.66%EV -21.19%E -2.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.66%EV -15.70%E -3.02%K -3.74%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-26 16:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 74.11%EV -10.43%E -8.84%K -57.94%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.74%EV -21.19%E -2.12%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.15%EV -17.32%E -3.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-26 16:44
Sky Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 72.40%EV -8.91%E -7.43%K -44.56%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.22%EV -33.01%E -3.88%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.38%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.73%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-26 17:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.