The School of Odds
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Brighton and Hove Albion v FK Kauno Žalgiris

2026-10-15 19:00 UTC — UEFA Europa Conference League

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Brighton and Hove Albion (Local)

Prediction 92.94%1.08fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -83.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.46%92.94%92.94%93.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.021.031.04100.00%97.66%97.09%96.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit)

Prediction 1.58%63.19fair odd
EV +12.36%
Edge +0.174%
Kelly +0.177%
Growth +0.022%

assuming max odds 71.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
1.36%1.58%1.58%3.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
29.0054.4060.0071.003.45%1.84%1.67%1.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 5.48%18.26fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +0.213%
Kelly +0.224%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.07%5.48%5.48%7.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.0016.2017.0019.008.33%6.17%5.88%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Brighton and Hove Albion (Local): 92.94%; FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit): 1.58%; Draw: 5.48%. For FK Kauno Žalgiris (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 63.19. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 71.00, producing a positive expected value of +12.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.27%E -4.15%K -142.33%G +0.000%71.00I 1.41%NM 1.36%EV +12.36%E +0.174%K +0.177%G +0.022%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.07%EV +4.04%E +0.213%K +0.224%G +0.009%3.8%2026-09-01 03:40
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.16%EV -5.20%E -5.10%K -259.97%G +0.000%61.00I 1.64%NM 1.56%EV -3.47%E -0.057%K -0.058%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.28%EV -1.44%E -0.080%K -0.084%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-01 03:40
Coolbet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.72%EV -3.34%E -3.21%K -83.51%G +0.000%60.00I 1.67%NM 1.61%EV -5.05%E -0.084%K -0.086%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.67%EV -6.91%E -0.407%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-01 03:40
betfred_uk🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.84%EV -4.27%E -4.15%K -142.33%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.85%EV -19.29%E -0.378%K -0.386%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -17.86%E -1.19%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 03:40
Sky Bet🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 89.46%EV -7.06%E -7.06%K +0.000%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.08%EV -54.11%E -1.87%K -1.93%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.46%EV -34.29%E -2.86%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-01 03:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-01 03:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-09-01 03:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.07I 93.46%NM 33.02%1.07I 93.46%NM 33.02%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.97%183.1%2026-09-01 03:40