The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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AS Monaco v SC Freiburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 19:00 UTC

Final: AS Monaco 3–0 SC Freiburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Monaco (Local)

Prediction 41.91%2.39fair odd
EV +0.594%
Edge +0.247%
Kelly +0.424%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.56%41.85%41.93%42.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.252.252.4048.78%44.47%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Freiburg (Visit)

Prediction 31.99%3.13fair odd
EV -2.12%
Edge -0.692%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.22%32.05%31.97%34.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.862.873.0638.02%34.97%34.84%32.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.10%3.83fair odd
EV -2.13%
Edge -0.568%
Kelly -0.775%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.19%26.11%26.10%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.553.603.7532.26%28.13%27.78%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AS Monaco (Local): 41.91%; SC Freiburg (Visit): 31.99%; Draw: 26.10%. For AS Monaco (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.594%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 40.05%EV +0.594%E +0.247%K +0.424%G +0.003%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.32%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.63%EV -2.13%E -0.568%K -0.775%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 18:50
Unibet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.72%EV -0.244%E -0.103%K -0.177%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.38%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%EV -4.74%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.10%EV -1.08%E -0.459%K -0.796%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.55%EV -4.68%E -1.57%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.36%EV -3.96%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.1%2026-10-22 17:55
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.07%EV -3.60%E -1.56%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.74%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.19%EV -2.13%E -0.568%K -0.775%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-22 18:00
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -3.60%E -1.56%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -8.20%E -2.86%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.98%EV -3.60%E -1.56%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -8.20%E -2.86%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 18:36
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -3.60%E -1.56%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 18:31
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -3.60%E -1.56%K -2.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-22 18:30
ReBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.98%EV -4.02%E -1.75%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.04%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.98%EV -3.44%E -0.929%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 18:47
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.56%EV -4.44%E -1.95%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.30%EV -15.87%E -6.04%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.14%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-22 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.56%EV -4.44%E -1.95%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.30%EV -15.87%E -6.04%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.14%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-22 18:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.56%EV -4.44%E -1.95%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.30%EV -15.87%E -6.04%K -9.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.14%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-22 18:50
Pinnacle🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 42.53%EV -5.27%E -2.33%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 31.41%EV -2.12%E -0.692%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV -3.70%E -1.00%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 18:55
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.57%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.40%EV -2.44%E -0.799%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.03%EV -3.96%E -1.08%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-22 18:46
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.41%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.81%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.79%EV -3.44%E -0.929%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-22 18:47
BetOnline.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.13%E -0.568%K -0.775%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 18:47
LowVig.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.32%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -2.13%E -0.568%K -0.775%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 18:47
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 18:55
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -5.64%E -1.91%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-22 18:50
picklebet_au🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 18:47
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-22 18:50
LeoVegas🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-22 18:47
Bet Right🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -4.74%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-22 18:00
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-22 18:10
888sport🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 18:55
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-22 18:55
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -5.69%E -2.53%K -4.55%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -13.63%E -5.05%K -8.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -13.88%E -4.20%K -6.03%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 18:30
1xBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.64%EV -6.53%E -2.93%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.17%EV -2.44%E -0.799%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.19%EV -5.26%E -1.45%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.51%EV -6.95%E -3.13%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 18:40
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.51%EV -6.95%E -3.13%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.71%EV -9.96%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.96%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.50%EV -4.04%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -3.44%E -0.929%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-22 18:47
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 18:49
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-22 18:48
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -6.05%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-22 18:55
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -7.24%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-22 18:47
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.43%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-22 18:50
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.18%EV -7.79%E -3.54%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.94%EV -12.03%E -4.38%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -8.66%E -2.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-22 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 41.29%EV -9.05%E -4.17%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 32.35%EV -11.39%E -4.11%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.36%EV -11.27%E -3.31%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-22 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.20%EV -11.14%E -5.26%K -9.95%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.72%EV -9.79%E -3.47%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.08%EV -10.48%E -3.06%K -4.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-22 18:43
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.01%EV -14.08%E -6.87%K -13.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.22%EV -8.84%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.78%EV -19.10%E -6.16%K -9.09%G +0.000%16.1%2026-10-22 18:47
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-22 18:55
Matchbook◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.12%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.06%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.82%0.6%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 41.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.96%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.07%0.9%2026-10-22 18:55