The School of Odds
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AGF Aarhus v KF Egnatia

Kickoff: 2026-10-22 19:00 UTC

Final: AGF Aarhus 1–1 KF Egnatia

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

42 sportsbooks (15 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Prediction 64.36%1.55fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -8.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.61%64.33%64.37%65.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.451.441.4971.43%69.11%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

KF Egnatia (Visit)

Prediction 14.60%6.85fair odd
EV +2.22%
Edge +0.317%
Kelly +0.370%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.30%14.64%14.65%16.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.246.007.0018.87%16.01%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.03%4.75fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.307%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.42%21.04%20.98%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.384.384.7025.64%22.85%22.86%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AGF Aarhus (Local): 64.36%; KF Egnatia (Visit): 14.60%; Draw: 21.03%. For KF Egnatia (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.85. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (42 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.26%EV -5.39%E -3.66%K -11.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.70%EV +2.22%E +0.317%K +0.370%G +0.008%4.56I 21.93%NM 21.04%EV -4.08%E -0.895%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-22 18:55
Coolbet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 65.08%EV -5.39%E -3.66%K -11.46%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.67%EV +2.22%E +0.317%K +0.370%G +0.008%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.26%EV -5.34%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-22 07:50
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.84%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.54%EV +2.22%E +0.317%K +0.370%G +0.008%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.61%EV -3.24%E -0.704%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-22 18:50
SportsBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.08%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +2.22%E +0.317%K +0.370%G +0.008%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.45%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-22 18:50
FanDuel🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -8.61%E -6.06%K -20.49%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV +2.22%E +0.317%K +0.370%G +0.008%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-22 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.78%EV +0.759%E +0.110%K +0.129%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -3.24%E -0.704%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.78%EV +0.759%E +0.110%K +0.129%G +0.001%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.67%EV -3.24%E -0.704%K -0.900%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-22 17:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.02%EV -7.96%E -5.57%K -18.52%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.09%EV -3.62%E -0.549%K -0.647%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.89%EV -6.40%E -1.44%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 07:50
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.54%EV -4.74%E -3.21%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -5.08%E -0.782%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.76%EV -3.24%E -0.704%K -0.900%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 18:36
Betway🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.71%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -5.08%E -0.782%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.85%EV -5.34%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-22 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.57%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -5.08%E -0.782%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 07:50
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.57%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -5.08%E -0.782%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 18:25
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.57%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.30%EV -5.08%E -0.782%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-22 18:24
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -5.08%E -0.782%K -0.924%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -11.65%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-22 18:50
1xBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.32%EV -4.74%E -3.21%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.43I 15.55%NM 14.80%EV -6.10%E -0.949%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.88%EV -4.08%E -0.895%K -1.15%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 18:55
ReBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52%EV -4.10%E -2.75%K -8.37%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.02%EV -6.54%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.46%EV -1.14%E -0.242%K -0.307%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-22 18:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.10%E -2.75%K -8.37%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -6.54%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -8.50%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 18:47
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.48%EV -4.10%E -2.75%K -8.37%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV -6.54%E -1.02%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.74%EV -8.50%E -1.95%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-22 18:47
Betsson🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -8.00%E -1.27%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -9.55%E -2.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 18:26
NordicBet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.80%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.68%EV -8.00%E -1.27%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -9.55%E -2.22%K -2.89%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-22 18:25
picklebet_au🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.92%EV -5.39%E -3.66%K -11.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.43%EV -3.24%E -0.704%K -0.900%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-22 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.47%EV -4.74%E -3.21%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.87%EV -5.34%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-22 18:36
Bovada🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.17%EV -4.74%E -3.21%K -9.88%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.58%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-22 18:41
LeoVegas🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -5.34%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-22 18:55
PlayUp🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.65%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.97%EV -7.45%E -1.69%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-22 18:50
theScore Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.26%EV -7.96%E -5.57%K -18.52%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.32%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -5.34%E -1.19%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-22 18:55
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-22 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-22 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-22 18:20
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-22 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -13.76%E -3.36%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.68%EV -6.67%E -4.60%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -13.76%E -3.36%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-22 18:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.84%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.07%EV -13.76%E -3.36%K -4.44%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-22 18:00
Sky Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -11.65%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 16:24
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.83%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.89%EV -12.38%E -2.06%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -11.65%E -2.77%K -3.64%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.03%E -2.79%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 07:50
Neds🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.03%E -2.79%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 07:50
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.03%E -2.79%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 07:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.03%E -2.79%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 07:50
BetMGM🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.17%EV -7.32%E -5.08%K -16.63%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.82%EV -16.03%E -2.79%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.01%EV -8.92%E -2.06%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-22 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.50%EV -7.96%E -5.57%K -18.52%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.96%EV -18.22%E -3.25%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.54%EV -12.71%E -3.06%K -4.03%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-22 18:33
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.61%EV -9.89%E -7.07%K -24.73%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.27%EV -22.61%E -4.27%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.12%EV -17.96%E -4.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-22 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.79%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-10-22 18:47
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.79%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.79%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-10-22 18:55
Matchbook◎1.51I 66.23%NM 65.79%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.14%0.7%2026-10-22 18:55