The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Sparta Prague v Servette FC

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sparta Prague (Local)

Prediction 46.65%2.14fair odd
EV -6.71%
Edge -3.35%
Kelly -6.71%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.26%46.65%46.61%47.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.871.951.972.0053.48%51.37%50.76%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Servette FC (Visit)

Prediction 28.17%3.55fair odd
EV -7.04%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.04%28.17%28.12%28.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.223.273.3032.26%31.02%30.58%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.19%3.97fair odd
EV -5.05%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%25.19%25.27%25.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.613.603.7728.99%27.73%27.78%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sparta Prague (Local): 46.65%; Servette FC (Visit): 28.17%; Draw: 25.19%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.97. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.77, with an expected value of -5.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.71%E -3.35%K -6.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -7.04%E -2.13%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.33%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-26 14:24
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.06%EV -8.11%E -4.12%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.35%EV -7.89%E -2.41%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.59%EV -5.05%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-26 15:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.61%EV -12.77%E -6.83%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.12%EV -12.68%E -4.09%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.27%EV -13.11%E -3.80%K -5.35%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-26 12:52
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.