The School of Odds
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SKN St. Pölten v Juventus

Kickoff: 2026-08-26 18:45 UTC

Final: SKN St. Pölten 0–3 Juventus

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SKN St. Pölten (Local)

Prediction 5.46%18.33fair odd
EV +14.56%
Edge +0.694%
Kelly +0.728%
Growth +0.106%

assuming max odds 21.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.30%5.48%5.47%6.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0017.1616.0021.007.69%5.83%6.25%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Juventus (Visit)

Prediction 81.99%1.22fair odd
EV -8.17%
Edge -7.30%
Kelly -68.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.79%81.86%81.74%84.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.101.111.1293.46%90.54%90.09%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.56%7.96fair odd
EV +7.10%
Edge +0.833%
Kelly +0.943%
Growth +0.067%

assuming max odds 8.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.92%12.66%12.79%15.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.087.008.5316.67%14.12%14.29%11.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SKN St. Pölten (Local): 5.46%; Juventus (Visit): 81.99%; Draw: 12.56%. For SKN St. Pölten (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.33. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
William Hill🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV +14.56%E +0.694%K +0.728%G +0.106%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.65%EV -8.17%E -7.30%K -68.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.05%EV -24.66%E -4.11%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-26 18:40
888sport🎯21.00I 4.76%NM 4.30%EV +14.56%E +0.694%K +0.728%G +0.106%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.65%EV -8.17%E -7.30%K -68.11%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.05%EV -24.66%E -4.11%K -4.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-26 18:39
Pinnacle🎯19.43I 5.15%NM 4.81%EV +6.00%E +0.309%K +0.325%G +0.020%1.11I 90.09%NM 84.23%EV -8.99%E -8.10%K -81.75%G +0.000%8.53I 11.72%NM 10.96%EV +7.10%E +0.833%K +0.943%G +0.067%7.0%2026-08-26 18:24
Betway🎯17.00I 5.88%NM 5.46%EV -7.26%E -0.427%K -0.454%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.62%EV -8.99%E -8.10%K -81.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV +6.72%E +0.791%K +0.897%G +0.060%7.7%2026-08-26 18:14
Bovada🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.67%EV -12.71%E -0.795%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.11I 90.09%NM 81.80%EV -8.99%E -8.10%K -81.75%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.52%EV -8.97%E -1.24%K -1.44%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-26 18:39
Betclic (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.52%EV -12.71%E -0.795%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.08I 92.59%NM 81.85%EV -11.45%E -10.60%K -143.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-26 18:18
NetBet (FR)🎯16.00I 6.25%NM 5.46%EV -12.71%E -0.795%K -0.848%G +0.000%1.07I 93.46%NM 81.61%EV -12.27%E -11.47%K -175.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.94%EV -15.25%E -2.26%K -2.65%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-26 18:40
BoyleSports🎯15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -18.17%E -1.21%K -1.30%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -9.81%E -8.92%K -98.12%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -12.11%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-26 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 6.87%EV -29.08%E -2.24%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 79.79%EV -8.17%E -7.30%K -68.11%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.34%EV -15.88%E -2.37%K -2.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-26 18:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.