The School of Odds
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Servette FC v Sparta Prague

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 16:45 UTC

Final: Servette FC 3–0 Sparta Prague

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Servette FC (Local)

Prediction 55.19%1.81fair odd
EV -6.18%
Edge -3.64%
Kelly -8.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.73%55.43%55.19%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.631.641.7063.29%61.22%60.98%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sparta Prague (Visit)

Prediction 21.46%4.66fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.231%
Kelly -0.296%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.10%21.21%21.46%21.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.234.204.6125.00%23.66%23.81%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.35%4.28fair odd
EV -6.12%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.05%23.36%23.35%23.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.853.804.0227.03%26.01%26.32%24.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Servette FC (Local): 55.19%; Sparta Prague (Visit): 21.46%; Draw: 23.35%. For Sparta Prague (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.61, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -6.18%E -3.64%K -8.83%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -8.79%E -2.07%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -6.59%E -1.65%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 14:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -8.94%E -5.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -9.87%E -2.35%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 14:05
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -8.94%E -5.42%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -9.87%E -2.35%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -11.26%E -2.96%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-02 14:03
Pinnacle🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.85%EV -10.05%E -6.16%K -15.95%G +0.000%4.61I 21.69%NM 20.10%EV -1.07%E -0.231%K -0.296%G +0.000%4.02I 24.88%NM 23.05%EV -6.12%E -1.52%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-02 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 54.73%EV -12.25%E -7.71%K -20.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.75%EV -14.16%E -3.54%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.52%EV -13.60%E -3.67%K -5.04%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-02 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 55.35%EV -12.80%E -8.10%K -22.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.33%EV -12.01%E -2.93%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.32%EV -12.43%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.3%2026-09-02 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.