The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Servette FC v Leuven

Kickoff: 2026-10-28 17:45 UTC

Final: Servette FC 5–1 Leuven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Servette FC (Local)

Prediction 28.19%3.55fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -1.31%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.62%28.21%28.18%30.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.143.103.3935.71%31.88%32.26%29.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 46.21%2.16fair odd
EV -3.89%
Edge -1.87%
Kelly -3.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.91%46.16%46.33%47.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.971.952.0855.56%50.68%51.28%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.61%3.91fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.369%
Kelly -0.498%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.38%25.63%25.49%26.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.573.553.8530.30%28.01%28.17%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Servette FC (Local): 28.19%; Leuven (Visit): 46.21%; Draw: 25.61%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -1.42%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.39I 29.50%NM 27.88%EV -4.44%E -1.31%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 46.57%EV -6.20%E -3.06%K -6.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-28 17:25
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.12%EV -5.56%E -1.66%K -2.37%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.10%EV -7.59%E -3.79%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -2.70%E -0.711%K -0.965%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-28 10:14
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.84%EV -6.97%E -2.11%K -3.03%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.43%EV -5.28%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.72%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-28 15:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -5.28%E -2.58%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-28 10:34
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.92%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.53%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -9.10%E -2.56%K -3.57%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-28 10:32
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.83%EV -8.38%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.60%EV -12.21%E -6.43%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.58%EV -5.77%E -1.57%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-28 10:15
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 10:14
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.52%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.81%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.67%EV -5.26%E -1.42%K -1.95%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-28 10:14
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -7.59%E -3.79%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 10:34
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -7.59%E -3.79%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-28 10:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 10:14
BetMGM🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 10:15
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-28 10:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 46.80%EV -12.21%E -6.43%K -13.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-28 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.62%EV -9.79%E -3.06%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.76%EV -12.67%E -6.70%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -11.66%E -3.38%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-28 17:18
BetOnline.ag🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 28.57%EV -10.36%E -3.26%K -4.75%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.12%EV -8.98%E -4.56%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 25.31%EV -8.08%E -2.25%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-28 17:40
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -3.89%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -3.89%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 17:10
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -3.89%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -3.89%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 17:15
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -3.89%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 17:15
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.22%EV -3.89%E -1.87%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.43%EV -1.42%E -0.369%K -0.498%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-28 17:15
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-28 10:48
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -15.50%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-28 10:14
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -15.50%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-28 10:15
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -15.50%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-28 10:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.34%EV -12.61%E -4.07%K -6.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.05%EV -9.90%E -5.08%K -10.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -15.50%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-28 10:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 27.63%EV -14.02%E -4.60%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.82%EV -16.83%E -9.35%K -21.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.54%EV -15.50%E -4.70%K -6.74%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-28 17:15
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.31%EV -15.43%E -5.14%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 45.56%EV -10.82%E -5.61%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.12%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-28 14:45
BoyleSports🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.40%EV -15.43%E -5.14%K -7.72%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 46.55%EV -15.44%E -8.44%K -18.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.05%EV -12.94%E -3.81%K -5.39%G +0.000%17.4%2026-10-28 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -18.25%E -6.29%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.91%EV -8.98%E -4.56%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-28 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.51%EV -18.25%E -6.29%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.91%EV -8.98%E -4.56%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.58%EV -7.82%E -2.17%K -3.01%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-28 17:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.47%EV -21.07%E -7.52%K -11.71%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 45.15%EV -12.67%E -6.70%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.38%EV -10.38%E -2.97%K -4.15%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-28 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.50I 28.57%NM 28.00%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.79%2.1%2026-10-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.29%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.03%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%2.5%2026-10-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.29%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.03%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%2.5%2026-10-28 17:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.29%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.03%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.68%2.5%2026-10-28 17:40