The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v Paris Saint Germain

Kickoff: 2026-09-22 19:00 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 1–1 Paris Saint Germain

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 56.59%1.77fair odd
EV -3.23%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.73%56.67%56.37%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.601.601.7166.67%62.51%62.50%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Paris Saint Germain (Visit)

Prediction 21.59%4.63fair odd
EV +4.94%
Edge +1.02%
Kelly +1.28%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 4.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.35%21.46%21.81%23.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.304.304.8625.97%23.26%23.26%20.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.81%4.58fair odd
EV -2.93%
Edge -0.658%
Kelly -0.848%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.79%21.87%21.81%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.084.054.4526.67%24.49%24.69%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 56.59%; Paris Saint Germain (Visit): 21.59%; Draw: 21.81%. For Paris Saint Germain (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.86, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.94%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.52%EV -10.58%E -6.70%K -18.25%G +0.000%4.86I 20.58%NM 19.35%EV +4.94%E +1.02%K +1.28%G +0.063%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.13%EV -2.93%E -0.658%K -0.848%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-22 18:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.34%EV -6.62%E -4.01%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.13%EV +1.49%E +0.316%K +0.402%G +0.006%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.53%EV -8.38%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-22 18:45
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -0.673%E -0.146%K -0.187%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -4.02%E -0.913%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-22 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.629%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 18:40
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.629%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 18:45
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.629%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 18:45
Grosvenor🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.629%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 18:40
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -2.83%E -0.629%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 18:45
Betway🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -11.15%E -7.10%K -19.56%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.39%EV -2.83%E -0.629%K -0.809%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.19%EV -5.54%E -1.28%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-22 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.78%EV -11.15%E -7.10%K -19.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.62%EV -4.99%E -1.13%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.60%EV -8.38%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-22 18:55
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 57.20%EV -10.02%E -6.30%K -16.98%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -7.15%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.65%EV -8.38%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-22 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.42%EV -13.41%E -8.77%K -25.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -7.15%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -6.20%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-22 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -11.15%E -7.10%K -19.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -7.15%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -16.01%E -4.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-22 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.40%EV -11.15%E -7.10%K -19.56%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.59%EV -7.15%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -16.01%E -4.16%K -5.62%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-22 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.53%EV -13.41%E -8.77%K -25.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.47%EV -7.15%E -1.66%K -2.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.00%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-22 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.59%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.28I 23.36%NM 21.29%EV -7.58%E -1.77%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.12I 24.27%NM 22.12%EV -10.12%E -2.46%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-22 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.29%EV -6.62%E -4.01%K -10.19%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -8.23%E -1.94%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.85%EV -7.29%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-22 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -8.32%E -5.14%K -13.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -9.31%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -8.38%E -2.00%K -2.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-22 18:55
William Hill🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -9.31%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -17.11%E -4.50%K -6.11%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-22 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 57.73%EV -15.11%E -10.07%K -30.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.62%EV -9.31%E -2.22%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.65%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-22 18:54
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.97%EV -3.79%E -2.23%K -5.42%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.52%EV -10.39%E -2.50%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.52%EV -9.47%E -2.28%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-22 10:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.16%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.92%EV -10.56%E -2.58%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-22 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 56.47%EV -14.54%E -9.63%K -28.52%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.80%EV -11.47%E -2.80%K -3.70%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.74%EV -18.20%E -4.85%K -6.62%G +0.000%17.3%2026-09-22 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-22 18:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.74%E -3.19%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-22 18:55
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 54.76%EV -8.89%E -5.52%K -14.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%EV -13.63%E -3.41%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.20%EV -17.11%E -4.50%K -6.11%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-22 18:55
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -3.23%E -1.89%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.99I 25.06%NM 23.46%EV -13.84%E -3.47%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 21.82%EV -6.42%E -1.50%K -1.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-22 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.38%EV -9.45%E -5.91%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.01%EV -16.87%E -4.38%K -5.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.61%EV -10.56%E -2.58%K -3.41%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-22 18:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.20%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03%1.2%2026-09-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.20%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.77%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.03%1.2%2026-09-22 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.34%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.70%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.96%1.5%2026-09-22 18:55
Smarkets◎1.66I 60.24%NM 59.10%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.02%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.87%1.9%2026-09-22 18:55