The School of Odds
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Real Madrid v Ajax

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 18:00 UTC

Final: Real Madrid 2–1 Ajax

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Real Madrid (Local)

Prediction 81.79%1.22fair odd
EV -7.58%
Edge -6.71%
Kelly -58.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.20%81.62%81.76%83.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.111.111.1392.59%90.32%90.09%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ajax (Visit)

Prediction 7.18%13.93fair odd
EV +3.96%
Edge +0.274%
Kelly +0.294%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 14.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.43%7.47%7.21%9.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5011.9612.5014.4810.53%8.36%8.00%6.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.03%9.06fair odd
EV -1.35%
Edge -0.151%
Kelly -0.170%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.42%10.91%11.04%14.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.207.958.108.9416.13%12.58%12.35%11.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Real Madrid (Local): 81.79%; Ajax (Visit): 7.18%; Draw: 11.03%. For Ajax (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.93. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.96%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.15%EV -8.40%E -7.50%K -70.00%G +0.000%14.48I 6.91%NM 6.43%EV +3.96%E +0.274%K +0.294%G +0.012%8.94I 11.19%NM 10.42%EV -1.35%E -0.151%K -0.170%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-02 17:35
Betsson🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.80%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.25%EV -10.25%E -0.820%K -0.892%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.06%EV -9.52%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 16:50
NordicBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.69%EV -9.22%E -8.30%K -83.80%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.25%EV -10.25%E -0.820%K -0.892%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.06%EV -9.52%E -1.16%K -1.32%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-02 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.87%EV -11.67%E -10.81%K -145.89%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.07%EV -10.25%E -0.820%K -0.892%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.05%EV -11.73%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 17:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 81.76%EV -11.67%E -10.81%K -145.89%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.21%EV -12.05%E -0.984%K -1.07%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.04%EV -11.73%E -1.47%K -1.68%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-02 17:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 77.20%EV -7.58%E -6.71%K -58.32%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.72%EV -28.20%E -2.82%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.07%EV -31.59%E -5.09%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.6%2026-09-02 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.61%EV -8.40%E -7.50%K -70.00%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.39%EV -31.79%E -3.35%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.10I 12.35%NM 11.01%EV -10.62%E -1.31%K -1.50%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.