The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Paris Saint Germain v Leuven

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 19:00 UTC

Final: Paris Saint Germain 5–0 Leuven

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris Saint Germain (Local)

Prediction 80.68%1.24fair odd
EV -4.80%
Edge -4.07%
Kelly -26.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.96%80.76%80.58%82.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.131.141.1892.59%88.21%87.72%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leuven (Visit)

Prediction 6.56%15.26fair odd
EV +12.09%
Edge +0.707%
Kelly +0.751%
Growth +0.091%

assuming max odds 17.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.38%6.53%6.63%8.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0013.7113.0017.109.09%7.29%7.69%5.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.77%7.83fair odd
EV +2.64%
Edge +0.328%
Kelly +0.374%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 8.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.31%12.72%12.79%14.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.307.107.008.0415.87%14.08%14.29%12.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paris Saint Germain (Local): 80.68%; Leuven (Visit): 6.56%; Draw: 12.77%. For Leuven (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 15.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 17.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.28%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%17.10I 5.85%NM 5.47%EV +12.09%E +0.707%K +0.751%G +0.091%7.05I 14.18%NM 13.26%EV -10.00%E -1.42%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 18:55
Bet Victor🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -10.45%E -9.41%K -94.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +11.44%E +0.673%K +0.715%G +0.082%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -4.26%E -0.568%K -0.655%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-01 18:53
betano_uk🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 82.42%EV -10.45%E -9.41%K -94.96%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.38%EV +11.44%E +0.673%K +0.715%G +0.082%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -4.26%E -0.568%K -0.655%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-01 18:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.58%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.18%EV -1.67%E -0.112%K -0.120%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.24%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-01 18:55
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -1.67%E -0.112%K -0.120%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -17.02%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -1.67%E -0.112%K -0.120%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -17.02%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -1.67%E -0.112%K -0.120%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -17.02%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-01 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 80.99%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.33%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.05%EV -1.67%E -0.112%K -0.120%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-01 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.97%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%14.95I 6.69%NM 6.31%EV -2.00%E -0.134%K -0.143%G +0.000%8.04I 12.44%NM 11.72%EV +2.64%E +0.328%K +0.374%G +0.010%6.1%2026-10-01 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.67%EV -5.61%E -4.79%K -32.97%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.74%EV -8.23%E -0.588%K -0.633%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.58%EV -4.26%E -0.568%K -0.655%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-01 18:05
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.57%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.70%EV -8.23%E -0.588%K -0.633%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV +2.12%E +0.266%K +0.304%G +0.006%6.6%2026-10-01 18:05
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 82.23%EV -11.25%E -10.23%K -112.53%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.46%EV -8.23%E -0.588%K -0.633%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV +2.12%E +0.266%K +0.304%G +0.006%10.6%2026-10-01 18:35
SportsBet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 81.75%EV -12.06%E -11.06%K -134.00%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.37%EV -8.23%E -0.588%K -0.633%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -4.26%E -0.568%K -0.655%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-01 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 80.66%EV -8.83%E -7.82%K -67.94%G +0.000%13.90I 7.19%NM 6.56%EV -8.88%E -0.639%K -0.689%G +0.000%7.13I 14.03%NM 12.78%EV -8.98%E -1.26%K -1.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 18:55
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.17%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -11.51%E -0.852%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-01 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 80.17%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%13.50I 7.41%NM 6.77%EV -11.51%E -0.852%K -0.920%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-01 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.85%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.15%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.00%EV -1.07%E -0.138%K -0.158%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 18:00
Unibet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 18:05
betPARX🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 18:05
Casumo🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 18:05
Grosvenor🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.82%EV -7.22%E -6.28%K -48.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.06%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.11%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-01 18:05
Bovada🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 81.26%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.00%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.74%EV -1.07%E -0.138%K -0.158%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-01 18:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 80.39%EV -10.45%E -9.41%K -94.96%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.75%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-01 18:54
William Hill🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.46%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.33%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.85%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -17.02%E -2.62%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-01 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 80.38%EV -11.25%E -10.23%K -112.53%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -14.78%E -1.14%K -1.23%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 12.81%EV -11.92%E -1.73%K -2.02%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 18:54
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.18%EV -4.80%E -4.07%K -26.66%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.47%EV -18.06%E -1.44%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 22:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.65%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.33%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.14%EV -18.06%E -1.44%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.22%EV -13.83%E -2.05%K -2.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-01 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 79.65%EV -9.64%E -8.61%K -80.33%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.14%EV -18.06%E -1.44%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.22%EV -13.83%E -2.05%K -2.41%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-01 18:05
Unibet (FR)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 79.28%EV -12.87%E -11.91%K -160.83%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.13%EV -21.34%E -1.78%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 13.59%EV -19.58%E -3.11%K -3.69%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-01 18:55
Coral🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.96%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.18%EV -27.89%E -2.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-01 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.96%EV -8.03%E -7.04%K -57.33%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.18%EV -27.89%E -2.54%K -2.79%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.86%EV -10.64%E -1.52%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-01 18:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 85.08%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.33%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%0.5%2026-10-01 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 85.08%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.33%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%0.5%2026-10-01 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 85.08%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.33%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.59%0.5%2026-10-01 18:50
Smarkets◎1.17I 85.47%NM 84.51%21.98I 4.55%NM 4.50%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.99%1.1%2026-10-01 18:55