The School of Odds
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Paris Saint Germain v Eintracht Frankfurt

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 16:30 UTC

Final: Paris Saint Germain 5–1 Eintracht Frankfurt

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris Saint Germain (Local)

Prediction 52.29%1.91fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.35%52.21%52.36%53.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.721.8359.88%58.02%58.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit)

Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -0.949%
Kelly -1.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.24%24.12%24.09%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.733.753.9829.41%26.80%26.67%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.54%4.25fair odd
EV -4.92%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -1.62%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.48%23.67%23.55%25.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.763.774.0428.57%26.58%26.49%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paris Saint Germain (Local): 52.29%; Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit): 24.18%; Draw: 23.54%. For Eintracht Frankfurt (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.98, with an expected value of -3.78%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.61%EV -4.31%E -2.36%K -5.20%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 16:15
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -8.50%E -4.85%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -17.63%E -5.04%K -7.05%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-02 16:25
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -8.50%E -4.85%K -11.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -17.63%E -5.04%K -7.05%G +0.000%13.5%2026-09-02 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.52%EV -9.02%E -5.18%K -12.19%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.43%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.05%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-02 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -9.54%E -5.52%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.27%E -4.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 16:25
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.50%EV -9.54%E -5.52%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.76%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -15.27%E -4.24%K -5.87%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-02 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.82%EV -10.06%E -5.85%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.26%EV -3.78%E -0.949%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 22.92%EV -4.92%E -1.22%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 15:50
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.97%EV -10.06%E -5.85%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -5.71%E -1.46%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.67%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-02 16:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.41%EV -10.06%E -5.85%K -13.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.56%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.03%EV -13.39%E -3.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 16:14
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.15%EV -10.59%E -6.19%K -14.91%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 23.24%EV -5.47%E -1.40%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -9.39%E -2.44%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-02 16:20
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -11.11%E -6.54%K -15.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -5.86%E -1.46%K -1.95%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-02 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.85%EV -12.16%E -7.24%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -12.96%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -7.04%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-02 16:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.74%EV -12.16%E -7.24%K -17.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.95%EV -10.55%E -2.85%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.57%E -2.78%K -3.77%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-02 16:25
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 51.64%EV -12.68%E -7.59%K -18.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.36%EV -17.80%E -5.24%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.00%EV -11.74%E -3.13%K -4.27%G +0.000%16.0%2026-09-02 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.