The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Paris FC v Arsenal

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 16:45 UTC

Final: Paris FC 2–2 Arsenal

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Paris FC (Local)

Prediction 11.45%8.73fair odd
EV +6.83%
Edge +0.732%
Kelly +0.820%
Growth +0.056%

assuming max odds 9.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.06%11.38%11.52%12.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.008.208.009.3314.29%12.19%12.50%10.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arsenal (Visit)

Prediction 69.96%1.43fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -4.11%
Kelly -15.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.10%70.04%69.89%73.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.291.301.3581.97%77.26%76.92%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.59%5.38fair odd
EV +7.82%
Edge +1.35%
Kelly +1.63%
Growth +0.127%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%18.58%18.59%19.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.005.005.8022.22%20.02%20.00%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Paris FC (Local): 11.45%; Arsenal (Visit): 69.96%; Draw: 18.59%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.38. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV -2.68%E -0.315%K -0.357%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.86%EV -14.65%E -12.01%K -66.58%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.54%EV +7.82%E +1.35%K +1.63%G +0.127%11.0%2026-09-30 16:40
Pinnacle🎯9.33I 10.72%NM 10.06%EV +6.83%E +0.732%K +0.820%G +0.056%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.22%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.71%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-30 15:55
Unibet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
betPARX🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:20
Casumo🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:20
Grosvenor🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.39%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.96%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.65%EV -1.47%E -0.278%K -0.343%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 16:15
DraftKings🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.49%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.53%EV -7.65%E -5.80%K -23.91%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.98%EV -2.40%E -0.458%K -0.565%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-30 14:50
BetMGM🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.71%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.44%EV -6.95%E -5.23%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.85%EV -2.40%E -0.458%K -0.565%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-30 15:50
Betway🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 10.32%EV +3.05%E +0.339%K +0.381%G +0.012%1.29I 77.52%NM 71.99%EV -9.75%E -7.56%K -33.63%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -2.40%E -0.458%K -0.565%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-30 15:15
Unibet (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.95%E -5.23%K -21.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-30 16:40
betano_uk🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-30 16:38
Bet Victor🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-30 16:40
Bovada🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -9.75%E -7.56%K -33.63%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-30 16:40
Coral🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-30 15:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.09%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-30 15:55
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -12.55%E -10.04%K -50.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -7.05%E -1.41%K -1.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 16:30
BetOnline.ag🎯8.36I 11.96%NM 10.92%EV -4.28%E -0.512%K -0.581%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 70.75%EV -9.75%E -7.56%K -33.63%G +0.000%4.98I 20.08%NM 18.33%EV -7.42%E -1.49%K -1.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.69%EV -11.85%E -9.40%K -45.58%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -8.91%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-30 15:50
Virgin Bet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.13%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 70.69%EV -11.85%E -9.40%K -45.58%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.18%EV -8.91%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-30 15:50
SportsBet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.01%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 71.02%EV -13.25%E -10.69%K -55.21%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.97%EV -8.91%E -1.82%K -2.28%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-30 16:35
NordicBet🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.21%EV -15.27%E -2.06%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 68.97%EV -8.35%E -6.38%K -26.94%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-30 16:40
Betsson🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.21%EV -15.27%E -2.06%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 68.97%EV -8.35%E -6.38%K -26.94%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.82%EV -10.77%E -2.24%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-30 16:40
1xBet🎯9.02I 11.09%NM 10.39%EV +3.28%E +0.363%K +0.409%G +0.013%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.93%EV -6.25%E -4.67%K -18.39%G +0.000%4.76I 21.01%NM 19.69%EV -11.51%E -2.42%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-30 16:40
Coolbet🎯8.40I 11.90%NM 11.12%EV -3.82%E -0.455%K -0.516%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.21%EV -5.55%E -4.11%K -15.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.67%EV -11.70%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 11:05
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 69.27%EV -9.75%E -7.56%K -33.63%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.81%EV -11.70%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-30 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.46%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 70.45%EV -14.65%E -12.01%K -66.58%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.09%EV -11.70%E -2.46%K -3.12%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-30 16:20
NetBet (FR)🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 11.61%EV -11.26%E -1.45%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.15%EV -12.63%E -2.69%K -3.41%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-30 16:40
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -14.49%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-30 16:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -14.49%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-30 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -8.40%E -1.05%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -14.49%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-30 16:40
Betclic (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.65%EV -19.85%E -2.84%K -3.31%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.10%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -14.49%E -3.15%K -4.02%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-30 16:35
William Hill🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -14.13%E -1.88%K -2.17%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -9.05%E -6.96%K -30.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -16.34%E -3.63%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-09-30 16:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-09-30 16:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-09-30 16:35
Smarkets◎10.00I 10.00%NM 9.90%1.35I 74.07%NM 73.32%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.78%1.0%2026-09-30 16:20