The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Manchester City v Paris Saint Germain

Kickoff: 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC

Final: Manchester City 1–1 Paris Saint Germain

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Manchester City (Local)

Prediction 64.90%1.54fair odd
EV -4.60%
Edge -3.13%
Kelly -9.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.95%64.82%64.95%67.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.401.401.4775.19%71.52%71.68%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Paris Saint Germain (Visit)

Prediction 15.18%6.59fair odd
EV +6.25%
Edge +0.893%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.065%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.39%15.30%15.13%17.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.756.026.007.0021.05%16.62%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.92%5.02fair odd
EV -0.395%
Edge -0.079%
Kelly -0.099%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.54%19.89%19.92%21.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.544.505.0024.39%22.02%22.22%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Manchester City (Local): 64.90%; Paris Saint Germain (Visit): 15.18%; Draw: 19.92%. For Paris Saint Germain (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.59. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -9.14%E -6.53%K -22.85%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +6.25%E +0.893%K +1.04%G +0.065%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -0.395%E -0.079%K -0.099%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-29 19:55
1xBet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.84%EV -10.44%E -7.56%K -27.47%G +0.000%6.99I 14.31%NM 13.39%EV +6.10%E +0.873%K +1.02%G +0.062%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.76%EV -0.594%E -0.119%K -0.149%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-29 19:55
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.43%EV -5.90%E -4.07%K -13.10%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.97%EV -5.37%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-29 19:40
Casumo🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 19:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 19:55
Grosvenor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 19:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 19:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 19:55
betPARX🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-29 19:55
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.19%EV -10.44%E -7.56%K -27.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.27%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -0.395%E -0.079%K -0.099%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-29 19:55
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -11.74%E -8.63%K -32.60%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.99%EV -1.34%E -0.205%K -0.243%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.14%EV -5.37%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-29 19:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.92%EV -10.44%E -7.56%K -27.47%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.44%EV -4.37%E -0.694%K -0.825%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 19.65%EV -7.77%E -1.68%K -2.14%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 19:55
Pinnacle🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.42%EV -4.60%E -3.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.18%EV -5.28%E -0.846%K -1.01%G +0.000%4.64I 21.55%NM 20.41%EV -7.57%E -1.63%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-29 19:50
NordicBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 65.36%EV -9.79%E -7.04%K -25.10%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.89%EV -7.41%E -1.21%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -8.36%E -1.82%K -2.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-29 19:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.12%EV -7.84%E -5.52%K -18.67%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.41%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.47%EV -5.37%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-29 19:54
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -11.74%E -8.63%K -32.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-29 19:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -11.74%E -8.63%K -32.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-29 19:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.41%EV -11.74%E -8.63%K -32.60%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.83%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.77%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-29 19:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -10.44%E -7.56%K -27.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.89%EV -15.34%E -3.61%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-29 19:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -10.44%E -7.56%K -27.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.89%EV -15.34%E -3.61%K -4.72%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-29 19:55
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.59%EV -13.68%E -10.29%K -41.46%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.76%EV -8.92%E -1.49%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.65%EV -5.37%E -1.13%K -1.43%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-29 19:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 65.12%EV -12.39%E -9.17%K -35.39%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.90%EV -10.44%E -1.77%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.98%EV -12.35%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-29 19:55
SportsBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.58%EV -13.03%E -9.73%K -38.34%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.89%EV -10.44%E -1.77%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.53%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-29 19:55
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.78%EV -11.74%E -8.63%K -32.60%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.19%EV -11.96%E -2.06%K -2.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.02%EV -12.35%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-29 19:55
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.38%EV -6.54%E -4.54%K -14.87%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.87%EV -12.72%E -2.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -12.35%E -2.81%K -3.63%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-29 19:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.99%EV -11.74%E -8.63%K -32.60%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.37%EV -12.72%E -2.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.64%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-29 19:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 64.11%EV -13.03%E -9.73%K -38.34%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 14.94%EV -12.72%E -2.21%K -2.68%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 20.95%EV -18.32%E -4.47%K -5.91%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-29 19:55
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.31%EV -5.25%E -3.59%K -11.41%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.54%EV -16.51%E -3.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.15%EV -14.34%E -3.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-29 19:40
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.38%EV -7.19%E -5.03%K -16.73%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.48%EV -16.51%E -3.00%K -3.67%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-29 19:55
Bovada🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.95%EV -4.60%E -3.13%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.87%EV -18.03%E -3.34%K -4.10%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.18%EV -14.34%E -3.33%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-29 19:43
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.14%E -6.53%K -22.85%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.90%EV -20.31%E -3.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-29 19:55
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.38%EV -9.14%E -6.53%K -22.85%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 16.90%EV -20.31%E -3.87%K -4.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.72%EV -10.36%E -2.30%K -2.96%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-29 19:55
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.37%EV -9.14%E -6.53%K -22.85%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.46%EV -24.10%E -4.82%K -6.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.17%EV -13.74%E -3.17%K -4.13%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-29 19:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 62.28%EV -12.39%E -9.17%K -35.39%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 17.70%EV -27.90%E -5.87%K -7.44%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.02%EV -16.33%E -3.89%K -5.10%G +0.000%18.9%2026-10-29 19:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-10-29 19:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.47I 68.03%NM 67.50%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.78%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-10-29 19:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.44I 69.44%NM 68.43%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.25%1.5%2026-10-29 19:55
Smarkets◎1.43I 69.93%NM 68.10%7.20I 13.89%NM 13.53%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.37%2.7%2026-10-29 19:55