The School of Odds
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Lyon v Chelsea

Kickoff: 2026-09-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Lyon 0–0 Chelsea

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon (Local)

Prediction 63.18%1.58fair odd
EV -5.87%
Edge -3.94%
Kelly -11.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.71%63.38%63.25%68.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.431.441.4975.76%69.80%69.44%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chelsea (Visit)

Prediction 16.93%5.91fair odd
EV +18.54%
Edge +2.65%
Kelly +3.09%
Growth +0.573%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.35%16.72%16.80%18.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.505.457.0020.00%18.17%18.35%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.89%5.03fair odd
EV +4.42%
Edge +0.841%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 5.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.25%19.90%19.95%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.505.2523.81%21.92%22.22%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lyon (Local): 63.18%; Chelsea (Visit): 16.93%; Draw: 19.89%. For Chelsea (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.91. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +18.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.76%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.35%EV +18.54%E +2.65%K +3.09%G +0.573%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.89%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-29 10:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.60%EV -16.61%E -12.58%K -51.89%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.15%EV +8.38%E +1.31%K +1.55%G +0.130%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.25%EV +4.42%E +0.841%K +1.04%G +0.046%10.4%2026-09-30 18:45
Unibet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 64.35%EV -7.76%E -5.32%K -16.87%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-30 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 18:55
betPARX🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 18:55
Casumo🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.51%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.59%EV +1.60%E +0.267%K +0.321%G +0.005%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.90%EV -6.52%E -1.39%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-30 18:55
Pinnacle🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.77%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%5.83I 17.15%NM 16.11%EV -1.27%E -0.219%K -0.264%G +0.000%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.13%EV -2.35%E -0.478%K -0.600%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-30 18:55
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.13%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.51%EV -2.63%E -0.457%K -0.554%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -2.55%E -0.520%K -0.653%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-30 18:40
betano_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.68%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -2.63%E -0.457%K -0.554%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 18:48
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.90%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.37%EV -5.53%E -1.16%K -1.47%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-30 18:54
Bet Victor🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.06%EV -8.39%E -5.79%K -18.65%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.32%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.4%2026-09-30 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 63.71%EV -10.92%E -7.74%K -26.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.33%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.96%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-30 18:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.44%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.15%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.42%EV -13.48%E -3.10%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.44%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.15%EV -6.86%E -1.25%K -1.53%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.42%EV -13.48%E -3.10%K -4.03%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-30 18:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.40%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.45I 18.35%NM 16.75%EV -7.71%E -1.41%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.85%EV -8.51%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-30 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 63.64%EV -14.71%E -10.90%K -42.03%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 15.91%EV -8.56%E -1.58%K -1.94%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.45%EV -16.47%E -3.92%K -5.15%G +0.000%16.4%2026-09-30 18:55
NordicBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.22%EV -7.76%E -5.32%K -16.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -10.25%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -12.49%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-30 18:55
Betsson🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 62.22%EV -7.76%E -5.32%K -16.87%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.14%EV -10.25%E -1.93%K -2.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.64%EV -12.49%E -2.84%K -3.67%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-30 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.36%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -11.10%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -8.51%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-30 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.08%EV -6.50%E -4.39%K -13.54%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.50%EV -11.10%E -2.11%K -2.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.42%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-30 18:50
Bovada🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.89%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.42%EV -11.94%E -2.30%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.69%EV -8.51%E -1.85%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-30 18:55
1xBet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.94%EV -5.87%E -3.94%K -11.97%G +0.000%5.19I 19.27%NM 18.07%EV -12.11%E -2.33%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 18.99%EV -1.75%E -0.354%K -0.444%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-30 18:52
Betclic (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 63.07%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.31%EV -13.64%E -2.67%K -3.33%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.62%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-30 18:53
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.88%E -3.21%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Coral🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.88%E -3.21%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.88%E -3.21%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.88%E -3.21%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.71%EV -9.02%E -6.27%K -20.51%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.77%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.52%EV -13.88%E -3.21%K -4.17%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-30 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 62.85%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.60%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.55%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-30 18:43
SportsBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 63.02%EV -12.18%E -8.77%K -31.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.52%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.47%EV -10.50%E -2.33%K -3.00%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-30 18:54
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 61.98%EV -11.55%E -8.25%K -28.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -15.33%E -3.07%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.66%EV -16.47%E -3.92%K -5.15%G +0.000%15.2%2026-09-30 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.63%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%0.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.63%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%0.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.63%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.59%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.78%0.5%2026-09-30 18:55
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.45%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.82%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.73%0.8%2026-09-30 18:55