The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Leuven v AS Roma

Kickoff: 2026-09-23 16:45 UTC

Final: Leuven 0–0 AS Roma

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leuven (Local)

Prediction 17.78%5.62fair odd
EV -2.20%
Edge -0.400%
Kelly -0.489%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.64%17.75%17.78%19.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.015.005.5021.74%19.97%20.00%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Roma (Visit)

Prediction 60.70%1.65fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -4.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.13%60.70%60.81%62.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.521.511.6069.44%65.65%66.23%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.52%4.65fair odd
EV +1.15%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.311%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.08%21.56%21.41%23.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.194.204.7026.32%23.87%23.81%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leuven (Local): 17.78%; AS Roma (Visit): 60.70%; Draw: 21.52%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV -16.42%E -3.49%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 61.84%EV -11.99%E -8.27%K -26.64%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.08%EV +1.15%E +0.245%K +0.311%G +0.004%11.5%2026-09-23 16:30
Pinnacle🎯5.45I 18.35%NM 17.23%EV -3.09%E -0.567%K -0.694%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.18%EV -8.35%E -5.53%K -16.37%G +0.000%4.56I 21.93%NM 20.59%EV -1.86%E -0.408%K -0.523%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-23 16:31
DraftKings🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.19%EV -2.20%E -0.400%K -0.489%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.80%EV -7.13%E -4.66%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.01%EV -3.15%E -0.701%K -0.901%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-23 16:35
1xBet🎯4.95I 20.20%NM 18.86%EV -11.98%E -2.42%K -3.03%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.83%EV -5.31%E -3.41%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.38I 22.83%NM 21.31%EV -5.74%E -1.31%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-23 16:34
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -6.64%E -1.27%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.01%EV -7.74%E -5.09%K -14.89%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-23 16:30
BetMGM🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.26%EV -7.13%E -4.66%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.29%EV -6.81%E -1.57%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-23 16:25
Bovada🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.19%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.16%EV -7.46%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-23 16:38
Betclic (FR)🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.62%EV -15.54%E -3.27%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 60.57%EV -11.38%E -7.80%K -24.75%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.81%EV -8.53%E -2.01%K -2.63%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-23 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-23 16:40
ATG (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-23 16:41
betPARX🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-23 16:40
Unibet (NL)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-23 16:40
Grosvenor🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-23 16:40
Casumo🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -2.89%E -1.80%K -4.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-23 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯5.15I 19.42%NM 17.74%EV -8.42%E -1.64%K -2.03%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 60.51%EV -8.35%E -5.53%K -16.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.75%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-23 16:40
NetBet (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.26%EV -12.87%E -2.63%K -3.30%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.44%EV -10.17%E -6.87%K -21.19%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.30%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-23 16:31
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -11.09%E -2.22%K -2.77%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -12.60%E -8.75%K -28.63%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -9.61%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-23 16:35
Coolbet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.29%EV -3.98%E -0.737%K -0.904%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.22%EV -5.92%E -3.82%K -10.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.49%EV -10.69%E -2.57%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-23 16:35
betano_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -2.20%E -0.400%K -0.489%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-23 16:25
Bet Victor🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -2.20%E -0.400%K -0.489%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-23 16:23
SportsBet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.24%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 60.40%EV -11.99%E -8.27%K -26.64%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.36%EV -11.76%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%14.2%2026-09-23 16:41
Coral🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.91%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-23 16:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -13.91%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-23 16:25
888sport🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -14.65%E -3.05%K -3.85%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -16.07%E -4.12%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-23 16:41
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -18.20%E -3.96%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.13%EV -7.74%E -5.09%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -16.07%E -4.12%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-23 16:40
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.21%EV -18.20%E -3.96%K -5.06%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 58.13%EV -7.74%E -5.09%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -16.07%E -4.12%K -5.54%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-23 16:40
William Hill🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 18.46%EV -15.54%E -3.27%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 58.46%EV -8.96%E -5.97%K -17.91%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.08%EV -18.22%E -4.79%K -6.51%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-23 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.80I 17.24%NM 17.01%1.58I 63.29%NM 62.44%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.55%1.4%2026-09-23 16:41
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.18%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.98%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.84%2.1%2026-09-23 16:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.70I 17.54%NM 17.18%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.98%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.84%2.1%2026-09-23 16:40
Smarkets◎5.80I 17.24%NM 16.87%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.74%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.39%2.2%2026-09-23 16:40