Language:English
Juventus v Benfica
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Juventus (Local)
Prediction 59.42%1.68fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -4.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.63
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.13%59.32%59.35%61.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.551.531.6371.94%64.69%65.36%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Benfica (Visit)
Prediction 18.73%5.34fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.315%
Kelly -0.389%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.60%18.81%18.76%20.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.864.945.2522.22%20.56%20.24%19.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 21.85%4.58fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.376%
Kelly -0.483%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.98%21.87%21.89%23.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.054.004.5027.40%24.66%25.00%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Juventus (Local): 59.42%; Benfica (Visit): 18.73%; Draw: 21.85%. For Benfica (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 5.25, with an expected value of -1.65%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 18:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.69%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.51%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.36%EV -3.14%E -1.93%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.11%EV -12.89%E -2.77%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.53%EV -9.34%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-22 10:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.39%EV -4.33%E -2.69%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 4.61I 21.69%NM 20.39%EV -13.64%E -2.96%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.43I 22.57%NM 21.22%EV -3.22%E -0.727%K -0.939%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.14%EV -6.71%E -4.27%K -11.77%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.88%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -1.69%E -0.376%K -0.483%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-22 18:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.13%EV -7.90%E -5.09%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -13.83%E -3.01%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -18.08%E -4.82%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.13%EV -7.90%E -5.09%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.25%EV -13.83%E -3.01%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.62%EV -18.08%E -4.82%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 59.64%EV -8.49%E -5.51%K -15.72%G +0.000% | 4.94I 20.24%NM 18.59%EV -7.46%E -1.51%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.22I 23.70%NM 21.77%EV -7.81%E -1.85%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-22 18:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.40%EV -9.09%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.60%EV -1.65%E -0.315%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.00%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-22 18:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.87%EV -9.09%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -11.96%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -10.43%E -2.54%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 57.78%EV -9.09%E -5.94%K -17.14%G +0.000% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 19.43%EV -14.77%E -3.25%K -4.16%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 22.79%EV -15.24%E -3.93%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-22 18:43 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.01%EV -9.68%E -6.37%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -1.65%E -0.315%K -0.389%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -4.97%E -1.14%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-22 18:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.03%EV -9.68%E -6.37%K -18.61%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.25%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.72%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-09-22 18:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.71%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.86%EV -4.46%E -0.875%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -7.15%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-22 18:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.71%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.86%EV -4.46%E -0.875%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.43%EV -7.15%E -1.68%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-22 18:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.70%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -6.34%E -1.27%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.39%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.41%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -13.83%E -3.01%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -8.25%E -1.96%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-22 18:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.26%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.52%EV -10.08%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.22%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-22 18:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -10.08%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -14.80%E -3.79%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-22 18:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.92%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.41%EV -10.08%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -14.80%E -3.79%K -5.10%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-22 18:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 57.33%EV -10.87%E -7.25%K -21.74%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.11%EV -15.70%E -3.49%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.56%EV -20.26%E -5.55%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 16.3% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 58.74%EV -11.46%E -7.69%K -23.39%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.23%EV -10.08%E -2.10%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.03%EV -16.98%E -4.47%K -6.07%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-09-22 18:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 60.86%EV -17.40%E -12.52%K -44.63%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.00%EV -11.96%E -2.54%K -3.23%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.15%EV -12.62%E -3.15%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 18.2% | 2026-09-22 18:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.71% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.17% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.85% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 17.10% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 22.04% | 0.8% | 2026-09-22 18:45 |