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Inter Milan v VfL Wolfsburg

Kickoff: 2026-09-02 16:30 UTC

Final: Inter Milan 3–1 VfL Wolfsburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Inter Milan (Local)

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV -6.05%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.14%22.39%22.55%23.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.003.904.2025.97%25.01%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)

Prediction 54.71%1.83fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -2.43%
Kelly -5.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.71%54.37%54.61%55.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.661.7562.50%60.03%60.24%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.92%4.36fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.43%23.24%22.84%24.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.843.854.1327.40%26.01%25.97%24.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Inter Milan (Local): 22.37%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 54.71%; Draw: 22.92%. For VfL Wolfsburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.75, with an expected value of -4.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.14%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 55.49%EV -12.47%E -7.79%K -20.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.37%EV -12.89%E -3.39%K -4.60%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-02 16:20
Pinnacle🎯4.19I 23.87%NM 22.11%EV -6.28%E -1.50%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -8.64%E -5.17%K -12.89%G +0.000%4.13I 24.21%NM 22.43%EV -5.33%E -1.29%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-02 15:35
Bovada🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -8.29%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 54.79%EV -9.18%E -5.53%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03%EV -9.45%E -2.39%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-02 16:25
Betclic (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.66%EV -12.76%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 54.56%EV -11.37%E -7.02%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 22.78%EV -11.06%E -2.85%K -3.84%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 16:04
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.55%EV -12.76%E -3.27%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 54.61%EV -11.92%E -7.40%K -19.54%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.84%EV -11.75%E -3.05%K -4.12%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-02 16:25
Betsson🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -13.88%E -3.61%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.71%EV -4.26%E -2.43%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -16.33%E -4.47%K -6.16%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 15:10
NordicBet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.50%EV -13.88%E -3.61%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.71%EV -4.26%E -2.43%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -16.33%E -4.47%K -6.16%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-02 15:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.