The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

HB Køge v Servette FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 16:45 UTC

Final: HB Køge 5–1 Servette FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

34 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HB Køge (Local)

Prediction 73.57%1.36fair odd
EV -4.36%
Edge -3.36%
Kelly -14.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.61%73.41%73.54%74.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.241.241.3086.21%80.68%80.65%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Servette FC (Visit)

Prediction 10.22%9.78fair odd
EV +3.76%
Edge +0.370%
Kelly +0.411%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 10.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.22%10.20%10.26%11.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.208.939.0010.1513.89%11.19%11.11%9.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.21%6.17fair odd
EV +2.14%
Edge +0.339%
Kelly +0.403%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 6.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.85%16.39%16.20%17.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.435.406.3020.00%18.41%18.52%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HB Køge (Local): 73.57%; Servette FC (Visit): 10.22%; Draw: 16.21%. For Servette FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.78. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.84%EV -8.04%E -6.43%K -32.17%G +0.000%10.15I 9.85%NM 9.22%EV +3.76%E +0.370%K +0.411%G +0.015%5.87I 17.04%NM 15.94%EV -4.84%E -0.824%K -0.993%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-01 16:35
Svenska Spel🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.72%EV -5.84%E -4.56%K -20.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.44%EV +2.23%E +0.223%K +0.247%G +0.006%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.85%EV -9.21%E -1.65%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 16:20
DraftKings🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.43%EV +2.23%E +0.223%K +0.247%G +0.006%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.72%EV -2.73%E -0.455%K -0.546%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 16:40
Grosvenor🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 16:20
Casumo🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 16:20
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.21%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.71%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.08%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 16:20
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -6.78%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-01 16:35
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.59%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.58%EV -2.89%E -0.304%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.83%EV -6.78%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-01 16:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 73.86%EV -9.51%E -7.74%K -41.37%G +0.000%9.21I 10.86%NM 9.86%EV -5.85%E -0.635%K -0.713%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 16.28%EV -9.54%E -1.71%K -2.08%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-01 16:40
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -8.04%E -6.43%K -32.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.31%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.46%EV -2.73%E -0.455%K -0.546%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-01 16:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.73%EV -8.04%E -6.43%K -32.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.24%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.03%EV -6.78%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-01 16:35
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.13%EV -8.78%E -7.08%K -36.58%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.08%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.79%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-01 16:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.86%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -17.32%E -3.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-01 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.74%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.86%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.40%EV -17.32%E -3.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-01 16:20
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 16:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 16:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.49%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.83%EV -8.00%E -0.889%K -1.000%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.69%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 16:35
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.87%EV -4.36%E -3.36%K -14.55%G +0.000%8.90I 11.24%NM 10.50%EV -9.02%E -1.01%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.63%EV -14.08%E -2.66%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-01 15:25
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.21%EV -6.57%E -5.17%K -24.34%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.63%EV -10.55%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.17%EV -6.78%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-01 16:35
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 73.40%EV -10.99%E -9.08%K -52.31%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.15%EV -10.55%E -1.21%K -1.36%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.45%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-01 16:40
Betsson🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.12%EV -8.78%E -7.08%K -36.58%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.54%EV -12.09%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.34%EV -10.02%E -1.81%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-01 16:35
NordicBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 73.12%EV -8.78%E -7.08%K -36.58%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.54%EV -12.09%E -1.41%K -1.59%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 16.34%EV -10.02%E -1.81%K -2.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-01 16:35
1xBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.23%EV -7.31%E -5.80%K -28.11%G +0.000%8.56I 11.68%NM 10.93%EV -12.50%E -1.46%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.85%EV +2.14%E +0.339%K +0.403%G +0.009%6.9%2026-10-01 16:35
Paddy Power🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.07%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -13.11%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-01 16:40
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.07%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -13.11%E -1.54%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.59%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-01 16:40
SportsBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.33%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 10.70%EV -15.66%E -1.90%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.97%EV -15.70%E -3.02%K -3.74%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-01 16:40
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -8.04%E -6.43%K -32.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -18.22%E -2.28%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -14.89%E -2.84%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-01 16:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.72%EV -8.04%E -6.43%K -32.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.21%EV -18.22%E -2.28%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.08%EV -14.89%E -2.84%K -3.50%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-01 16:35
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 71.61%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.92%EV -18.22%E -2.28%K -2.60%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.47%EV -18.94%E -3.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-01 16:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 72.50%EV -10.25%E -8.40%K -46.59%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.41%EV -20.78%E -2.68%K -3.08%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.08%EV -10.83%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-01 16:35
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 72.46%EV -14.66%E -12.64%K -91.65%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.67%EV -26.40%E -3.67%K -4.26%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.86%EV -14.08%E -2.66%K -3.27%G +0.000%19.0%2026-10-01 16:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.39%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.90%1.4%2026-10-01 16:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.39%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.90%1.4%2026-10-01 16:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.70%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.39%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.90%1.4%2026-10-01 16:10
Smarkets◎1.31I 76.34%NM 74.50%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.76%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.74%2.5%2026-10-01 16:10